Patriots at Bills: Best Bets, Player Prop Values, Top Trends
Arm yourself with this information for the Week 13 edition of Monday Night Football
Dan Karpuc - Dec 5, 2021, 6:11pm EST
The Buffalo Bills (7-4) host the New England Patriots (8-4) in the Week 13 edition of Monday Night Football. Buffalo is a 3-point favorite and the over/under is a low 41 points heading into this AFC East battle. Scroll down to see a best bet from our model, two player prop values, the game’s top trends and more!
Patriots at Bills: Best Bet
BetQL is listing Buffalo’s (-135) first half moneyline as a ⭐⭐⭐ value. The model values the Bills at -163 in the first half, a 62% implied win percentage. Click the button below to unlock every best bet, including multiple ⭐⭐⭐⭐ picks now! For just $4.99, you’ll get those along with every NBA, NHL and NCAAB value instantly!
Patriots at Bills: Player Prop Values
Mac Jones Over 1.5 Passing TD ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (+160, DraftKings): The model is projecting the Patriots QB to throw for 240 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in this matchup. The talented rookie has surpassed this number in two of his last three contests and he’s gone 64-81 (79%) for 715 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. The Bills have allowed just 0.7 passing touchdowns per game, the best mark in the NFL, but Bill Belichick and his staff have dominated the Bills over the years and will assuredly gameplan to bring out Jones’ strengths through the air.
Damien Harris Over 11.5 Rushes ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-114, FanDuel): BetQL is projecting the Patriots RB to rush 18 times for 55 yards. Harris has taken double-digit carries in each of the last six games, but has split time with backup Rhamondre Stevenson in recent weeks. In last week’s win over the Tennessee Titans, Harris took 11 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown while Stevenson took nine carries for 46 yards. Expect OC Josh McDaniels to ride the hot hand in this important game, but Harris should be expected to outsnap and outperform his rookie teammate in what could be a run-heavy scheme.
Stefon Diggs Over 60.5 Receiving Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-110, DraftKings): The model is projecting the Bills WR to catch six passes for 90 yards and a touchdown. Yes, a Belichick-led defense traditionally eliminates the opposing team’s biggest threat, but Diggs has proven to be matchup-proof. The last time he matched up against New England (last season), Diggs caught nine passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout win. Sure, that was a completely different Patriots defense, but with New England having to account for Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, Cole Beasley, and a talented stable of running backs, Diggs should be able to do some damage and avoid constant double coverage situations.
Patriots at Bills: Top Trends
Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have gone 8-1 ATS after allowing 4.0 or less yards per play in their last game. In last week’s 31-6 win over the New Orleans Saints, Buffalo’s defense allowed just 3.3 yards per play, thus making this trend relevant.
However, under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have gone 22-3 SU (+21 units) after allowing 17 points or less in four consecutive games. New England allowed 13 points to the Tennessee Titans last week, shut out the Atlanta Falcons the week before and allowed just seven points to the Cleveland Browns and six to the Carolina Panthers in the weeks before.
Both of these trends are very powerful, but which one is the model fading? To see our model’s best bets, click the button above to subscribe to BetQL!
