NFL Win Totals: Chiefs Have Tough Road To The Over

The Chargers, Broncos and Raiders have all improved

The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the staples of the NFL over the past four years or so since one Patrick Mahomes took over the reigns from Alex Smith. His ability at the quarterback position is something that is extraordinarily rare, and he has led his team over their current projected win total for the 2022 season of 10.5 each season he has been the starting QB. However, times have started to change a bit in the AFC West, and the Chiefs themselves have started down a different path than what they had become accustomed to over the last several years. While it is very difficult to bet against Mahomes and future hall of fame head coach Andy Reid, there is reason to believe that now is finally the time to do so. In the past, this was a losing gambit, but now there is legitimate cause to doubt the vaunted Chiefs.

First of all, there is one argument that is very easy to see and point out as to why Kansas City is ready to decline: They got worse, their rivals got better. Losing a superstar and true X-Factor player like Tyreek Hill will be very hard to replace. His deep threat ability and speed has caused defensive coordinators to lose sleep at night trying to come up with some sort of plan to stop him and Mahomes, and very few were able to over the years. Now, as Hill moves on to Miami to play for the Dolphins after being traded, the offense is that much worse. Their draft class was pretty good in my opinion, and they did their very best to fill that hole by drafting Skyy Moore. However, there is very little chance that Moore will be able to replace the production that Hill gave to the team in his rookie season, and first year players as a while can struggle a lot of the times. Kansas City also lost a game changer at safety in Tyrann Mathieu, and his presence in the back of that defense will be sorely missed for his playmaking ability and his leadership. Let's not forget that other players like Travis Kelce are starting to get up there in age, and we don't know how much longer they will be viable options to put up big numbers.

The Oakland Raiders traded for Davonte Adams, one of the best receivers in the NFL to pair with his college QB Derek Carr. The Chargers already had a load of talent on their team, but managed to trade for Chicago Bears All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack. And let's not forget, one of the best signal-callers in the NFL over the last decade has gone from Seattle to Denver to play for the Broncos, and that's Russell Wilson. Every team in the AFC West improved except for the Chiefs, who lost one of their best playmakers. Kansas City also is projected to have one of the toughest schedules in the league in 2022.

When you combine all of that together, a bet for the UNDER 10.5 wins seems much more logical than it might have at face value.

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