NFL Week 13: Editors' Picks For Bills at Patriots

Week 13 NFL Best Bets

NFL Week 13 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the To help you make the best bets tonight, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite wagers below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.

One key trend to note is that, over the past two weeks, the BetQL NFL model has gone 89-54 (62.2%) on all bets for a total return of $1,321 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. 

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Dan Karpuc: Patriots +5 vs. Bills

The storyline heading into this game is certainly what happened the last two times these teams played: Buffalo didn’t have to punt the ball a single time offensively and crushed New England. This year is going to be different, though. Headlined by NFL sack leader Matthew Judon (13.0), this Patriots defense is elite and has pressured opposing quarterbacks 27.3% of the time, the 2nd-best rate in the NFL. New England’s 13.4% hurry rate is the best in the NFL and they’ve been able to accomplish those two numbers with a 25.3% blitz rate (14th-most).

Quite surprisingly, just 64.1% of Allen’s throws have been considered on-target this season. That’s the worst mark in the entire NFL and he’s accumulated 11 interceptions so far. You have to think Bill Belichick is going to force some errant throws from him and give his defense chances to make plays. Since this game is a crucial one for the Patriots and will take place in Foxborough, I’ll give the edge to New England +5 and might consider betting them on the moneyline as well depending on the price I get.

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Lucy Burdge: Patriots +5 vs. Bills
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games and the Patriots have covered in three of their last four, so I have a lot of faith in the Patriots to cover the spread in this one. A trend in the Patriots’ favor to cover this spread is Bill Belichick is 41-16 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in the last game while coaching New England. The Lions just gave the Bills a run for their money on Thanksgiving and Detroit covered that 9.5-point spread when they lost to Buffalo by only three points. So I think the Patriots can handle covering this against the Bills.

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