NFL Rookie of the Year Futures: Lock in Kyler Murray at +225?
Previewing the NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Top Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
It’s no surprise that top overall draft pick, Kyler Murray, leads the way in the offensive rookie of the year odds at +225. Murray will be the day 1 starter for the Cardinals and will have veteran pieces around him such as WR Larry Fitzgerald and RB David Johnson around to help take the pressure off of him. First year head coach Kliff Kingsbury will be bringing his air-raid offense to the NFL and Murray will be throwing the ball from the spread early and often. Murray also has rushing upside, which could push him over the edge in rookie of the year voting. While I wouldn’t classify his +225 odds a value, it is appropriately handicapped given that we know that Murray will be asked to shoulder a heavy workload from day 1.
Dwayne Haskins is next up in odds at +600 and he is a very attractive option at that number. Haskins will have to compete with veteran Case Keenum to win the starting job for Washington, but even if he doesn’t start out the year as QB1, there is no way that he won’t see the field given how mediocre Keenum has proven to be as a starting quarterback. What could push Haskins to the OROY is that the Redskins have a real shot at making the playoffs. It’s easy to forget that Washington was a very competitive team last season before fading down the stretch after the devastating leg injury to QB Alex Smith. Haskins has a big time arm and great pocket presence, but he will lack weapons in the passing game outside of TE Jordan Reed.
The next three players in OROY odds are a collection of running backs with Raiders first-round pick Joshua Jacobs leading the way at +700. Jacobs will likely start the season as the Raiders first option at running back, and head coach Jon Gruden has already praised Jacobs for his work ethic and running style. While Jacobs is certainly not the type of talent that last year’s offensive rookie of the year Saquon Barkley is, he will get the type of volume needed to potentially put up a monster season. If you aren’t a believer in any of the first year quarterbacks, then Jacobs is an excellent bet at +700.
Darrell Henderson and Miles Sanders both will, in all likelihood, not start the season as starters, and it will take injuries for them to see the type of volume that they would need to have a shot at offensive rookie of the year honors. +1400 is not enough value for me to consider them at this point.
Other Notables: T.J. Hockenson (+1600), David Montgomery (+1600), Noah Fant (+1800), N’Keal Harry (+1800), Mecole Hardman (+2000), Marquise Brown (+2200), Paris Campbell (+2500), Daniel Jones (+2500), D.K. Metcalf (+2500)
Top Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
While the offensive rookie of the year is pretty much a three horse race, the defensive player of the year award is wide open.
Nick Bosa and Devin White lead the way at +700 odds. Of the two, I would favor White. Perhaps no position in football can transform a defensive like a truly elite middle linebacker can and Devin White has all the makings of being an instant impact player for a Tampa Bay defense that badly needs a shot in the arm. Last year, we saw Darius Leonard make a massive impact for the Indianapolis Colts. I’m not saying that White will lead the league in tackles in his first year like Leonard did, but White projects to be every bit the type of athletic, sideline to sideline athlete that Leonard is.
Devin Bush is another linebacker that should have an instant impact for a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is still searching for a true replacement for Ryan Shazier. Bush is undersized at 5’11’’, but has the physical traits to be a dominant player at the NFL level. His +800 aren’t a great value, but he could absolutely win the award if the Steelers' defense shows improvement over their mediocre level of play from last season.
The next 6 players in odds are all defensive lineman and all of them realistically have just as good of a shot at winning the award as Joey Bosa does, but at more favorable odds. Josh Allen is the most interesting of the bunch at +1000. He will be joining an already good Jaguars defense and was widely touted as the best pure pass rusher in the draft.
Other Notables: Ed Oliver (+1200), Brian Burns (+1400), Clelin Ferrell (+1400), Montez Sweat (+1400), Jahlani Tavai (+2200), Rashan Gary (+2500), Deandre Baker (+2800)
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