NFL Playoffs: How Much Is Home Field Advantage Worth To The Point Spread?

For decades, when it comes to betting, bookmakers and gamblers alike believed NFL home field advantage was worth roughly three points. In layman's terms: two teams that are considered equal on a neutral field would be 3-point favorites at their respective home stadiums.

As every gambler knows, every point counts. That is even more true in the NFL, where the key betting numbers are three, six, and seven.

However, everything is up in the air this year. Like everything else in the world, the pandemic has affected the NFL. Due to COVID-19, teams are missing their most impactful allies, the fans. Fans give home teams life and opposing teams nightmares, especially in certain venues.

For the first time in NFL history, home teams finished below .500 on the season, going 127-128-1 overall. Away teams also outgained home teams by 7.7 yards per game (the most since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger), and home teams outscored away teams by a measly 0.05 points per game (second-lowest ever).

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While the NFL is pumping in artificial crowd noise to create some kind of ruckus, that noise is nowhere near as loud as a stadium filled with fans.

This first stuck out to me when the Green Bay Packers took on the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. Usually the noise in the Superdome is deafening, but in that matchup, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was able to get the Saints to jump offsides on his usual hard count.

The Packers went on to win 37-30, but that is when I realized just how much the lack of crowds would come into play this season, especially if a team had a good quarterback. And, when you look at the teams in the playoffs this year, it’s no surprise that most of the teams boast elite signal callers.

Gamblers and oddsmakers have taken note of this year’s home-away splits, too. Overall, Vegas favored home teams by an average of 1.06 points per game this year, significantly the lowest total on record.

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To make more sense of home-field advantage’s impact on the odds, I caught up with Jay Kornegay, the SuperBook’s EVP of Operations.

Right off the bat he tells me, “there are many varying opinions and trains of thoughts on home field advantage.”

Coming into the season, he said, his team valued home-field advantage at anywhere from 2 to 2.5-points per game. As the season went on and road teams were winning and covering spreads at higher rates, they adapted. From there they adjusted the value of home field advantage being a little less.

Now, according to Kornegay, home field advantage is worth about 1.5 to 2 points per game.

Which brings us to the Playoffs. With Wild Card Weekend kicking off on Saturday, and some stadiums allowing fans, will his book be making adjustments towards the home teams?

“We don’t see an impact when it comes to teams allowing fans in the playoffs,” Kornegay explained. “5,000 to 17,000 fans won’t be enough to move the needle.”

But, there are a few special cases if things do somehow go back to the norm. Kornegay points out exceptions to the spread during regular years when a couple of teams are at home.

“Stronger venues such as New Orleans, Seattle, Green Bay, or Kansas City, where the crowd can really be loud and have an influence on the opposing team's offense, can be worth anywhere from 3.5 to 4 points,” Kornegay says. “But, those are extreme cases.”

Other than that, his team of oddsmakers trust their home-field numbers as of now at 1.5-2 points, and they are sticking with their power ratings. A team power rating is the difference between two teams on a neutral field under optimal weather conditions.

Speaking of weather, it is a component that can come into play in the postseason, especially if a team like Green Bay is hosting a game in January.

“We always look at the weather impact on the line, but most of it is overblown,” Kornegay explains. “We look for things like high winds and extreme colds, or where both teams are freezing, and then make our adjustments from there.”

All of this will be fun to monitor on a weekly basis, especially if teams change their rules to allow more fans to attend during the playoffs. The Super Bowl itself might also be a different ballgame, as the league is looking to include fans.

Like everything else during the pandemic, this is all a fluid situation, but worth keeping an eye on throughout the postseason. Bottom line: home field advantage isn't what it used to be.