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The Chiefs are averaging 29 points per game and the Bills are averaging 29.4 points, so I think between these two they can hit this over. The Bills were 5-3 O/U on the road this season and the Chiefs (11-7 O/U this season) have gone over in six straight games. These teams also hit this over when they faced each other this season in the Bills’ 38-20 win and I see this as another high-scoring one.
This is the matchup that has the most juice. Yes, we have a ton of great teams playing this weekend, but Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen is the cream of the crop here. Kansas City is coming off a 42-point, 478-yard effort against the Steelers, and these two teams were both top-five offenses during the regular season. Defense is where the difference could be here, with the Bills finishing tops in the NFL in total yards allowed, while the Chiefs were 27th. Yes, that side of the ball improved down the stretch for K.C., but over their stretch of winning nine of 10 to wrap the regular season, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert were by far the best QBs they saw, and the Chiefs gave up 28 to the Chargers and 34 in a loss to the Bengals.
If you recall, Diggs was the only Bills player to stay on the field and watch the Chiefs celebrate after winning the AFC Championship last season. In the rematch, BetQL is projecting him to catch seven passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. The Bills have targeted wide receivers on 71.2% of their pass attempts (second-highest) and Diggs ranked second in the NFL in air yards, accounted for 34.6% of his team’s air yards (17th), had a 26.6% team target share (14th) and attracted 9.6 targets per game (sixth). It’s also important to note that he had five games with a 30%+ target share, so when Allen knows Diggs can consistently get open, he feeds him the ball.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs secondary aligned in press coverage on 68% of routes against Steelers slot/wide receivers in their Wild Card win, which would rank as the highest press coverage rate by a team in any game over the last six seasons (playoff or regular season). Kansas City had a 40% press coverage rate during the regular season, which was the highest rate in the NFL. If they adopt a similar strategy in this matchup and decide to press Diggs on the outside, the star wideout should be able to eat. Give me the over!
Starting in Week 15, the Bills clearly made it a point to establish Devin Singletary as their lead back. The result has been five straight wins with Singletary averaging 18.4 carries for 80.8 yards per game. I don't think that formula for success changes this weekend as the Bills try to control the game on the ground and play keep-away from Patrick Mahomes. Plus, the Chiefs were uneven against the run this season, allowing 4.8 ypc. I'll even look at an anytime TD prop for Singletary, who has scored eight times in that torrid five-game stretch.
Mahomes has an incredible ATS record when he is a field goal favorite or shorter, going 14-4 (78%) and winning nine of his last 11 SU in this scenario. This is also another game where I am betting on the more proven head coach and QB to get the job done. If Josh Allen and Sean McDermott can win this game and knock off Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, kudos to them. I'll tip my cap and move on. But until that happens, I'm going with what I know has been a great bet.