NFL Playoff Picks: Bengals-Titans

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Dan Karpuc: Bengals +3.5

BetQL is listing this as its recommended bet and I’m taking the model’s pick since it’s gone 25-15 ATS (62.5%, +$774 on $100 bets) in Ryan Tannehill starts and has hit 55.3% of all Bengals bets all-time. Sure, Derrick Henry being back certainly gives the Titans a boost, but it’s very difficult to ignore Cincinnati’s offensive talent with Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd all healthy. Tennessee allowed the eighth-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season, and the Bengals have the potential to put up huge numbers through the air. Give me the underdogs at +3.5.

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Matt Horner: Titans -3.5

I know, I said in multiple articles how much I think the Titans are fraudulent, but the best unit on the field in this game will be the Titans defense, a top-10 unit this season. They were really good against the run, and Cincinnati continues to kill themselves with these terrible early down run calls. Their passing attack has significantly improved, but they refuse to go pass-heavy, and that allowed Las Vegas to stay in the wild-card game.

Before his injury, Derrick Henry had Tennessee as a top-10 rushing team. He’s expected to be healthy for Saturday, as are receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Their play-action game should cause problems for Cincy. Let’s also not forget homefield advantage. Cincinnati was much worse on the road this season opposed to at home, ranking 25th on offense instead of ninth at home. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense ranked seventh at home. I think the Titans are a weak No. 1 seed, but they are still better than the Bengals in Tennessee.

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Brad Pinkerton: Under 47.5

Despite boasting superstars on offense, these teams trend toward the under, particularly in this situation. Tennessee, which has gone under in four of its last five games, is just 2-7 O/U at home, while Cincinnati is 2-6 O/U on the road this season and 2-4 O/U in its last six overall. Even with Derrick Henry likely back for the Titans and the Burrow-Chase connection clicking, I'll take the under here.

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Nick Ashooh: Bengals +3.5

What this comes down to is which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Now before you say, "Well, duh, Nick,” it’s more than just a cop-out answer. Joe Burrow has thrown 13 straight touchdowns without an interception, while Ryan Tannehill has seven touchdowns and no picks his last three games. Force a turnover on one of these guys and that may be the difference. Derrick Henry’s return is obviously massive for the Titans, but this Bengals offense is rolling, and doing enough to keep this game within a field goal.

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Lucy Burdge: Bengals +3.5

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are coming into this game with some confidence after their big win over the Raiders, so I like their chances here to cover this spread. Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points over the last two years, and they were 6-2 ATS on the road this season, so I see them covering the spread in this one. 

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