Week 4 NFL Player Prop Model Picks

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season is here and BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis,  exclusive sportsbook offers and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of. We crunched all the numbers and our model identified the following player prop values.

DERRICK HENRY OVER 71.5 RUSHING YARDS

GAME: TITANS +3.5 AT COLTS, O/U 43

PROJECTION: 21 RUSHES, 105 YARDS, TD

When involved in close games against the Giants in Week 1 and Raiders in Week 3, Tennessee’s workhorse rushed 21 times for 82 yards and then 20 times for 85 yards and a touchdown, respectively. The Titans are projected to keep this game close as 3.5-point underdogs against the Colts, which works in Henry's favor.

Indy has only allowed 77.0 rushing yards per game (3rd-best in the NFL), but they’ve faced the Texans, Jaguars and Chiefs… none of whom have an unquestioned bell cow back like Tennessee does. This entire Titans offense runs through Henry and this week should be no exception. The model is projecting him to take 21 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown in this matchup.

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DRAKE LONDON OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS

GAME: FALCONS +1.5 VS. BROWNS, O/U 48

PROJECTION: 5 RECEPTIONS, 95 YARDS, TD

Rookie Drake London is off to an awesome start to his NFL career and is Marcus Mariota’s unquestioned top target in this Falcons offense. In Week 1, he caught five of seven targets for 74 yards against the Saints and he followed that up with eight catches on 12 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown at the Rams in Week 2 and three catches on six targets for 54 yards and a touchdown at the Seahawks in Week 3.

The Browns have allowed 240.0 passing yards per game, which is right in the middle of the pack, but London’s target share (34%) and air yards share (35.67%) are both elite. This may be the last time his receiving yards prop is this low and BetQL is projecting five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown.

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NAJEE HARRIS OVER 66.5 RUSHING YARDS

GAME: STEELERS -3 VS. JETS, O/U 41.5

PROJECTION: 17 RUSHES, 85 YARDS

The Steelers have clearly made reducing their young running back’s workload a priority early on, as he has gotten 12, 20 and 18 touches in his first three games. He hasn’t surpassed the 66.5 rushing yards threshold yet and has only averaged 3.2 yards per carry, but a matchup against the Jets could do the trick.

In their only previous road game, New York’s defense allowed 184 rushing yards to the Browns in Cleveland and our model is viewing this as a get-right spot. We project Harris to take 17 carries for 85 yards, making this a solid value.

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