Top NFL Player Prop Picks For Bills at Patriots

Week 13 Player Props

NFL Week 13 kicks off an AFC East matchup between the Bills and Patriots! To help you make the best bets, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite NFL player prop bets below using key trends and the BetQL NFL model's data.

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Dan Karpuc: Rhamondre Stevenson 125+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (Alt Line, DraftKings +200)

With Damien Harris out, it’ll be the Stevenson show in New England’s backfield. Our model is projecting him to easily get over his 61.5-yard rushing number (with 90 rushing yards) and I agree with the data. Bill Belichick and his staff will definitely try to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands as much as possible and the way to do that will be to feed Stevenson the ball and keep the clock running. 

As a receiver, Stevenson just got 10 targets against the Vikings and hauled in nine of them for 76 yards. He’s been a reliable source of catches in the passing game and has racked up over 55 receiving yards in four of his last five contests. If New England trails, his ability to do work as a receiver would also be a path to success as far as this prop is concerned. Without Harris cutting into his workload and in this important divisional contest, I expect Stevenson to be a three-down back and see upwards of 90% of the snaps at the position. That volume he will get and lack of game script dependency makes this a stellar target on Thursday night.

Lucy Burdge: Mac Jones Over 224.5 Passing Yards

Jones has hit this over in his last two games, with 382 passing yards in the Patriots’  last game against the Vikings and 246 passing yards the week before that against the Jets. He also hit this over in Week 2 of this season against the Steelers and in Week 3 against the Ravens. Heading into this Thursday matchup,, the second in a row for both teams, Jones called this a “huge game,” so he’s aware of the moment and I think he’ll live up to it and hit the over on these passing yards in this game.

BetMGM Staff: Josh Allen Under 267.5 Passing Yards

Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s elbow injury isn’t keeping him off the field, but it seems to be affecting him at times. In four of his last five games, a stretch that includes even before he was hurt, he’s gone under this total.

The Patriots aren’t an easy matchup. They’re third in passing defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and allow the ninth-fewest passing yards (198.5 per game) in the league.

They’ve also limited nine of their 11 opponents this season to less than this total. New England’s defense is too strong for Allen to reach 268 passing yards.

BetMGM Staff: Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards

If Allen does struggle through the air, maybe he fuels the Bills’ offense on the ground. He’s gone over this total in four of his last five contests and averages 51 rushing yards per game for the season.

His recent injury doesn’t seem to limit his rushing opportunities. He ran 10 times against the Lions last week, for example. And in eight games where he’s had at least six carries, he’s gone over this total in seven of them.

The Patriots have limited teams to 109.3 rushing yards per game, but they allowed mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields to combine for 189 rushing yards in two games. Allen is capable of exposing that weakness again against New England.

Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, including player props, plus what the model is projecting for every NBA, NHL, college football and college basketball game! Start your free trial today!