Dan Karpuc: Bengals -4
The Dolphins may be undefeated, but the injury bug certainly bit them in Week 3. They listed 15 players on their injury report, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle), left tackle Terron Armstead (toe), cornerback Xavien Howard (groin/glute) and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (groin).
We know that the way to limit Cincinnati’s offense is by pressuring Joe Burrow (this Bengals offense has allowed 15 sacks in three weeks). However, the Fins have a 15.3% pressure rate (fifth-lowest in NFL) and have registered just six sacks so far. Miami has also missed 21 tackles so far (fourth-most). All of that doesn’t exactly paint a pretty outlook for them against a Bengals offense with a bunch of game-breakers.
Burrow and this Bengals offense got back on track against the Jets last week and Cincinnati’s defense performed well, allowing just 12 points. Ja’Marr Chase’s blow-up game is going to come soon, so why not against a injury-riddled defense on a short week? BetQL is giving the Bengals a 66.5% chance to beat the Dolphins outright. Plus, BetQL points out that Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS over the last two years against a team with a winning record; 16-6 ATS versus teams that average 235+ passing yards per game; and 12-4 ATS against teams that complete 61% or more of their passes over the last two years. Give me the Bengals -4.
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Brad Pinkerton: Dolphins +165 at DraftKings
DraftKings is bringing back their "Up 7 Early Win" promotion for TNF, which means I'm backing the underdog Dolphins at +165 (but only on DK). Not only is Miami more than capable of jumping ahead by seven at any point for an easy win here, they're 3-0 SU, including two huge wins over the Ravens and Bills as underdogs. The catch here, though, is that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa might not even play, which explains why Cincinnati is favored. Rather than wait on Tua's status and taking the line movement either way, I'll take the Dolphins +165 at DK now, then hedge at another book if Tua is ruled out; that will give us a chance to cash if Miami manages to get up by 7 and if the Bengals win outright.
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Lucy Burdge: Dolphins +4
The Dolphins are 3-0 SU and ATS this season and could arguably be the best team in football right now. And I think they cover the spread as the underdogs against the Bengals, who are just 1-2 ATS this season. The Dolphins covered as four-point underdogs against Bills in Week 3, 3.5-point 'dogs against the Ravens in Week 2 and as three-point favorites against the Patriots in Week 1. I see them making it 4-0 ATS up against the Bengals.
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