BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Chiefs-Buccaneers SNF

Week 4 NFL Best Bets

Dan Karpuc: Under 45.5
First off, I’m not touching either side of this game. I don’t think either team has the clear edge I’m looking for. With that being said, I love the under. The under has been absolutely dominant in Tampa Bay’s first three games (with 42, 43.5 and 49.5 point totals). In those contests, the totals finished at 26, 30 and 22 points, respectively. The under has also gone 2-1 in Kansas City’s games so far. Patrick Mahomes and Co. only scored 17 points in a Week 3 loss to the Colts, so it’s clear they are not at their best right now and still adjusting to the loss of Tyreek Hill. They’re still figuring things out, which isn’t a great sign against this TB defense. This Buccaneers defense is arguably the best in the NFL and Tampa Bay’s offense has only generated an average of 17.0 points per game of their own heading into Week 4, so I think the threat of a shootout is relatively low, something I don’t think anyone would have thought heading into the season.

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Lucy Burdge: Buccaneers -110
The Buccaneers suffered a loss last week to the Packers, but I think they’ll pick it up this week against the Chiefs. Tom Brady did say in his post on social media that they have to be better this week and I don’t think he’s going to let Tampa Bay lose two in a row. Plus, over the last three years, the Buccaneers are 16-4 vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better, and are 13-3 vs. teams with fewer than 7.5 yards per punt return. So I think the Buccaneers can keep from skidding and beat the Chiefs here.

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Brad Pinkerton: Under 45.5

I liked this total a lot better at 48.5 and apparently the sharps did too, as it was hammered down to 45.5 this week. I'd wait to see if it creeps back up a bit, but I still like under 45.5, which sounds crazy for a Brady-Mahomes matchup. But these teams are a combined 1-5 O/U this season as both are still trying to gain traction in both the pass and run games for various reasons (and let's not forget the Bucs' elite defense). There could also be issues with field conditions in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. With Tampa Bay scoring just 17.0 points per game, allowing only 9.0 ppg (lol), and hitting unders by an average of 19.0 ppg so far, I'm expecting another surprisingly low-scoring game for these two.

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MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 4

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