BetQL Editors' NFL Picks For Saints-Bucs MNF
Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Monday Night Football
Week 13 MNF Best Bets
NFL Week 13 wraps up with the Buccaneers hosting the Saints on Monday Night Football! To help you make the best bets tonight, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite MNF bets below using key trends and the BetQL NFL model's data.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NFL Model has been on fire, going 211-145 (60%) on all picks in the past 30 days for a total return of $1,595 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers get more NFL betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick.
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Dan Karpuc: Under 41
The under has hit at a 81.8% rate (9-2) in Tampa Bay’s games this season and it’s also gone 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five contests. Oddsmakers have consistently mispriced Buccaneers totals after Tom Brady’s offense put up 29.9 points per game last season (second-best in the NFL) and was essentially a juggernaut. This year, the Buccaneers rank 27th in points scored per game with just 18.2 and their defense has also been better than last year (18.5 points per game allowed, sixth-best in NFL), a perfect storm that has contributed to the dominant percentage of under victories. The first time these teams played this season, Tampa Bay earned a 20-10 victory in New Orleans and 24 of those 30 total points were scored in the fourth quarter. I expect this to be a low-scoring, gritty affair between divisional foes.
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Kate Constable: Saints +3
Since joining the Bucs, Tom Brady has had his struggles against the Saints. He’s 1-4 straight up against them with his only win coming in Week 2 of this season. It’s also not a great sign that Tampa Bay’s best offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs is out with injury, which means there will now be three backups managing the O-line for Brady. Not to mention, this is a Saints pass rush that has bothered Brady in the past. The Bucs also have a number of players in their secondary that have been listed as questionable or day-to-day all week, so that unit comes in a little banged up. Yes, it’s Andy Dalton that you’re betting on with the Saints, but based on these two teams' previous meetings, I’ll take the points with the Saints.
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Lucy Burdge: Buccaneers -3
The Buccaneers under Tom Brady finally got the best of the Saints earlier this season with their 20-10 win over New Orleans and I think there will be another win and cover for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have also covered two of their last three spreads and they are 12-3 ATS vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64 percent or better in the second half of the season over the last three years. So I think the Buccaneers can get back on track again and get a win over the Saints here.
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Brad Pinkerton: Saints Under 19.5
The Saints are averaging just 12.5 points per game in their last four after getting shutout at San Francisco last week, and they have mustered just 10 total points in their last two road games. A date with Tampa Bay's top-10 defense doesn't sound like a great cure, either. BetQL is projecting exactly 19.5 points for New Orleans tonight, which I think is very generous, but not alarmingly high. With Alvin Kamara somehow M.I.A. in this offense, give me the under on the Saints team total all day.
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MORE MNF: BETTING GUIDE | PLAYER PROPS
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