Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Odds, Best Bets, Picks

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Preview

Kickoff: Monday, 10/18, 8:15 p.m. EST - Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.

Moneyline: Bills -190, Titans +160

Point spread: Bills -3.5, Titans +3.5

Total: O/U 53.5

The Buffalo Bills travel to Nashville, Tenn., to take on the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 6. The Bills, fresh off a convincing Sunday Night victory against the Chiefs in Kansas City, opened as 3.5-point road favorites. The moneylines opened at Bills -190 and Titans +160, with a game total of 53.5. Let's take a look at each team and the best bets and picks for the Bills-Titans game.

Buffalo Bills Preview

The Buffalo Bills (-3.5) enter their Week 6 matchup at Tennessee 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS, including four straight covers after that Week 1 debacle against Pittsburgh. The Bills are also 3-1 ATS as the favorite, including three straight covers, and are 2-0 ATS on the road.

This week, the Bills' elite offense draws a Titans defense that gets a D+ rating from BetQL's NFL Model. While we expect the Bills to handle the Titans on Monday night, don't be too eager to bet the over quite yet. Buffalo was just 1-3 O/U before combining with Kansas City for 58 points in Week 5 to barely go over the total of 57, the highest number of the season for the Bills. This week's total of 53.5 is the second highest for Buffalo so far. Sure, we expect Buffalo to score plenty again in Week 6, but how much will the Titans chip in?

Tennessee Titans Preview

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a get-right game against the still-winless Jaguars and are now 3-2 across the board -- straight up, ATS and O/U. Also note that the Titans are 0-2 O/U at home.

The Titans will have a much tougher test this week, though, with the red-hot Bills offense (and defense) coming to town. While the Titans have a respectable B+-rated offense, according to BetQL, the Bills D is even better at A+, so expect a tough game offensively for Tennessee. We already mentioned the mismatch between Buffalo's offense and Tennessee's defense, so it could be a rough night overall for the Titans.

One key injury to track for Tennessee will be whether Julio Jones is able to return from a hamstring injury that has cost him two games already.

Bills vs. Titans Prediction

There are several good values bettors should consider in this matchup. First, the BetQL Model rates Bills -3.5 as a 3-star value in this matchup. We actually have the Bills favored by 4.5 points, so we could see the spread widen, especially after the Bills' dominant performance against Kansas City in Week 5.

The Bills -190 moneyline is also a 3-star value, though we expect this number to increase as well; BetQL has Buffalo -224 with a 69-percent chance to win. Plus, Bills coach Sean McDermott is 27-6 as a favorite while coaching Buffalo, and it doesn't hurt that the BetQL Model is 29-12 (71 percent) on Bills moneyline picks.

As for that O/U bet you were considering, BetQL actually rates under 53.5 as a 3-star value and projects the total at 51.5 points. Josh Allen and Co. will do their part in trying to hit that total, but we're not sure sure about Tennessee. The Titans are averaging just 9.5 points in the first half, and if they fall behind early against Buffalo and have to abandon Derrick Henry in the run game, it could be a lopsided affair that falls short of the total. We're seeing the total bounce between 52.5-54.5, so see if you can get on the higher end to go under.

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