Cardinals QB Kyler Murray In Tight NFL MVP Race

• Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford are tied at +800 for best odds to win NFL MVP at FanDuel.
  
• But Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is lurking close behind at at +850 with a showdown with Stafford on tap.
  
• Player and team performance aren't the only factors determining the winner.

The NFL MVP race couldn't be more packed right now. Through the first three weeks of the season, we have a four-way tie at FanDuel for the favorite at +800 odds between Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. There are two more tied for the second-best odds at +850 with Tom Brady and Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert is just behind them at +900.

It's a race where one week can make or break your chances.

What Factors Could Go Into This?

Well, this clearly can change week by week, but we have to look at the big picture.

Like I pointed out with the NBA MVP odds, it's the media voting on this award, which means narratives matter. So does player performance, team wins, along with factoring in voter fatigue. Michael Jordan and Tom Brady would've just won every year if voters didn't want to see a new name get the award.

So, Who's The Best Bet?

One of the big stories heading into this year was how perfect the Sean McVay/Matthew Stafford marriage was. Well, so far we're seeing just that. Brady has had his three MVPs, and he lost the matchup with Stafford last week, so that may lose him votes.

Rodgers won his third last year, and the last back-to-back MVP was Peyton Manning in 2009, so those factors work against him right now.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are 1-2, and he isn't having the usual Mahomes-like season. Given the question marks with that Kansas City defense, they may have a lower ceiling in terms of team success this year. All of that's working against Mahomes.

This leaves us Murray, Herbert and Stafford out of those top names. The Rams look like the best team out of that group, and Stafford can make his case even stronger with a win over Murray's Cardinals this weekend. Stafford and the Rams are 4.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals with the total set at 55.

It's likely the winner of this NFC West matchup is propelled to the top of the MVP odds. It's a week-by-week race, but Stafford has a slight edge and a strong chance to make it his award to lose if he beats Murray on Sunday.