NFL Model: Division Value Bets Heading Into Week 4

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season is here and BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis, exclusive sportsbook offers and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of. However, we also have the ability to simulate every remaining game of the season 10,000 times to identify which futures have the most value. Scroll down to take a look at three bets that you should get action on ASAP.

Note: BetMGM odds below. Click the "bet now" button below each value bet below and wager risk-free up to $1,000 if you don't already have a BetMGM account!

PACKERS TO WIN NFC NORTH

BETMGM: -115 (53.49%) | BETQL: -300 (75%)

After falling to the Vikings by the score of 23-7 in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers won back-to-back games against the Bears (27-10) and Buccaneers (14-12) to improve to 2-1. The Vikings and Bears are both 2-1 as well and the Lions are 1-2, but after simulating every remaining game on their schedules 10,000 times, we're giving Green Bay a 75% chance (-300 implied odds) to win the division.

Compare that with the -115 odds (53.49% implied probability) you can get at BetMGM right now. Bet this why the value is still there!

CHIEFS TO WIN AFC WEST

BETMGM: -105 (51.23%) | BETQL: -203 (67%)

Remember that time when the AFC West was supposed to be the best division in the history of modern football? That was fun. The Chiefs have gotten off to a 2-1 start after beating the Cardinals 44-21 in Week 1, Chargers 27-24 in Week 2 and falling to the Colts 20-17 on the road in Week 3. The Raiders are currently 0-3, the injury-plagued Chargers are 1-2 and offensively-plagued Broncos are 2-1. Kansas City stands out as the clear best bet to win the division in our model.

After our simulations, we're giving Patrick Mahomes and company a 67% chance to win (-203 implied odds). Since you can get -105 odds (51.23% implied probability) on BetMGM, this is a solid value to take advantage of!

RAVENS TO WIN AFC NORTH

BETMGM: -125 (55.56%) | BETQL: -178 (64%)

The Ravens are 2-1 but very well could be 3-0 right now. They beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, blew a huge lead in a 42-38 Week 2 loss to the Dolphins and earned an impressive 37-26 victory against the Patriots in Foxborough in Week 3. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level right now and there are some serious question marks about other teams in the division.

The Browns are 2-1, Steelers are 1-2 and Bengals are 1-2 at the moment, but after simulating all of their games 10,000 times each, we're giving Baltimore a 64% chance to win the division (-178 implied odds). BetMGM is offering -125 odds (55.56% implied probability) on that outcome.