NFL 2021 Odds: Bet Over Keenan Allen Receptions

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the trendy picks to make the AFC Playoffs. 

There is some substance to the hype, mainly because of the offense. Justin Herbert is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year and has a strong set of skill players to work with, namely Keenan Allen at wide receiver. 

Allen is an elite wide out and should have no issue following up a strong season with a similar one in 2021 now that he has a full offseason to work with Herbert.

Last season, Allen was towards the top of the league in all major wide receiver categories, but a few really stick out.

He was fifth in targets and receptions, while 16th in yards and 13th in touchdown catches. 

That is why I’m keying in on his over receptions prop as there is clearly a strong relationship between the QB and WR.

Allen finished 2020 with 100 catches, which included two missed games.

A full offseason with Herbert in control of the offense should only benefit Allen, who is one of the best route runners in the league. Not to mention he brought in 16 of his 33 ‘tight-window’ targets, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is the best percentage of receivers with at least 20 targets. 

Herbert looks for him, and Allen delivers, catching more than 68% of targets in his careers.

Health is also a huge part to clearing a lofty season long prop like this. Before Allen missed the final two games last season-- one to a hamstring injury, the other to COVID-19 Protocols -- he hadn’t missed a game since 2016.

I’m bullish on the Chargers this season, mainly because of their offense, and see Allen getting to his typical season marks with the growth of Herbert.

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