Misvalued 2022 NFL Win Totals

BetQL's NFL Model simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times

BetQL's NFL Model simulated every game of the upcoming 2022 season 10,000 times and identified many win total value bets you should make as soon as possible. Scroll down to find out which teams are undervalued or undervalued compared to their current consensus odds. You might be shocked to see some of the teams below...

BetQL's NFL Model simulated every game of the upcoming 2022 season 10,000 times and identified many win total value bets you should make as soon as possible. Scroll down to find out which teams are undervalued or undervalued compared to their current consensus odds. You might be shocked to see some of the teams below...

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As you can see above, the simulation data suggests that the Colts are the most undervalued AFC team since they have a 9.5-game consensus win total and we project them at 11. The Chargers and Jets are also undervalued by a full game while the Bengals, Browns, Chiefs and Broncos are all undervalued by a half game.

The sim agrees with sportsbooks on the Bills, Patriots and Jaguars and matches their win totals.

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The Steelers are the most overvalued team at 7.5 wins (the model projects 6), while the Titans and Ravens are both overvalued by a full game. The Dolphins, Raiders and Texans are also overvalued by a half game.

Overall, over 9.5 wins for the Colts and under 7.5 wins for the Steelers are BetQL's best AFC win total bets.

MORE: NFL Win Total Staff Picks

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The Falcons are standing out as the most undervalued team in the NFC since our model is projecting them at 5.5 wins compared to their 4.5 consensus victories. The Packers, 49ers, Vikings, Cardinals, Bears and Seahawks are also undervalued by a half game.

The Cowboys, Eagles and Lions have no value in their win totals since our model and the sportsbooks match.

The Panthers are the most overvalued NFC team (we project 5 wins, sportsbooks project 6.5) while the Saints and Rams are also overvalued by a full game. The Commanders, Giants and Buccaneers are all overvalued by a half game.

Overall, under 6.5 wins for the Panthers and over 4.5 victories for the Falcons are the best NFC win total bets.

MORE: BetQL Staff Picks To Make NFL Playoffs

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