Week 4: Early Line Movement & Best Bets
See live odds and our model’s corresponding best bets now
Dan Karpuc - Sep 27, 2022, 11:43am EDT
Opening Line: Packers -6.5 vs. Patriots
The Green Bay Packers were already going to open as clear home favorites against the New England Patriots, but with Mac Jones’ high ankle sprain, the line reached double digits. With Jones healthy, this New England offense only generated 16.7 points per game (25th in NFL) and their defense was gashed for 37 points to the Ravens at home.
Green Bay earned a gritty 14-12 victory in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers last week and it’s clear that Aaron Rodgers is getting more comfortable with his receiving crew and this Packers defense is legit. With Brian Hoyer and/or Bailey Zappe as options to start for New England, it’s very difficult to imagine their offense producing many points at Lambeau Field. See our model’s best bets below.
Opening Line: Chargers -7 at Texans
Speaking of injuries, the bug has bitten the Chargers once again. In their 38-10 blowout loss to the Jaguars in Week 3, Los Angeles lost starting left tackle Rashawn Slater (biceps) for the season, Jalen Guyton (ACL) for the year and star linebacker Josy Bosa (groin) for a number of weeks. While Keenan Allen (hamstring) returned to practice, cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle) remains questionable and, most importantly, Justin Herbert (ribs) is playing through an injury of his own.
The Chargers have been unable to run the football (2.6 yards per carry) and 20 of their 64 attempts have gone for no gain or negative yards. This line got shorter (to the -4.5 area) as a result of their Week 3 defeat, but they’re still favored against the winless Texans. Check out our model’s best bets below!
Opening Line: Chiefs at Bucs Under 48.5
The under has been absolutely dominant in Tampa Bay’s first three games (with 42, 43.5 and 49.5 point totals). In those contests, the totals finished at 26, 30 and 22 points, respectively. The under has also gone 2-1 in Kansas City’s games so far. Patrick Mahomes and company just scored 17 points in a Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, so it’s clear they are not at the best spot right now, still adjusting to the loss of Tyreek Hill.
Meanwhile, this Buccaneers defense is arguably the best in the NFL and Tampa Bay’s offense has only generated an average of 17.0 points per game of their own heading into Week 4. This total was bet down to the 45 point range and it could continue to fall throughout the week. Make sure to consult our model to find out if you should bet over or under the current total by seeing our best bet below!
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