Yesterday, Nick Kostos and Ken Barkley discussed the Cam Akers injury and the impact it will have on the Los Angeles Rams on You Better You Bet.
Here are the best nuggets from the conversation:
Ken: This is one way pro and college markets function differently. For example, I was watching a lot of North Carolina college games and it's impossible to watch any of their games and not think that Carter and Williams are insanely important to what they do. If one of them, or both of them had gotten hurt, your opinion of North Carolina would have to change so drastically. The point spreads would change. That's a situation where if NC played one of the big schools and one of those guys didn't play, you'd be like I really got to reassess my handicapping of this game because they are important. And, the players backing them up are going to be so much worse.
In NFL cases, yes, Cam Akers was better than everyone on the roster, that is why he was the starter. But, is the difference between him and whoever is going to fill that usage so crazy different or so crazy worse? This is a position that has basically been disregarded by advanced analytics people. So will it require an adjustment to season long stuff from a betting standpoint? I wouldn't expect the win total to change. Maybe a couple of places like 5 cents? I don't know if that is a catalyst for someone to go bet the under on the Rams, which is what would happen if there was a QB injury.
Super Bowl odds. Are they less likely to win the Super Bowl now? Maybe in some backdoor, nebulous way, sure. Maybe their ceiling of what they could be, I buy that. But is that tangible? Like a percent number? No. Is Stafford less likely to win MVP? No.
So, yes, it's a crappy injury and there is a fantasy impact here. Does this want me to want to make a bet or make me want to change how I view the team? I don't really change my projections or big picture kind of stuff in a way that makes me want to make a bet based off of this news.
Nick: I agree. Unfortunately the RB position doesn't matter in the NFL. I get it, like Tennessee without Derrick Henry, that is a big loss. But, look, Saquon Barkley goes out last year. It's not like Wayne Gallman was as good as Saquon, he's not, but he filled in really nicely for Barkley last year. We see this happen in the NFL all the time.