Week 6 NFL Best Bets Using Model Data | BetQL
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NFL Week 6 Best Bets Using BetQL Model Data

BetQL’s Dan Karpuc breaks down his three favorite bets for the Week 6 Sunday slate

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  • Below, I’ll reveal my favorite bets of the week and explain how access to BetQL’s premium data led me to them. 

  • Favorite overall bet: Carolina Panthers +0.5 First Half ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ vs. Minnesota Vikings: BetQL has gone 16-8 (66.7%) on 1st half spread bets in Sam Darnold's starts. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $634 right now. Further, BetQL has gone 19-11 (63.3%) on 1st half spread bets in Kirk Cousins' starts. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $648 right now.

  • Favorite over/under: Under 50.5 Points In Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots game ⭐⭐⭐⭐: BetQL has gone 4-0 (100%) on O/U bets in Mac Jones' starts. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $364 right now. The model is projecting 48 total points to be scored.

  • Favorite underdog: Houston Texans (+355). They’re the biggest underdogs on the Week 7 slate despite having a matching 1-4 record with the Indianapolis Colts and are worth consideration due to Indy’s historically-awful pass defense, as I’ll explain below.

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Panthers +0.5 1H vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Carolina is a +0.5 first half underdog against the Vikings and our model is listing the Panthers as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value due to its -2 projection (projected score: Panthers 13, Vikings 11). Carolina has led at halftime in all five of their games this season and have outscored their opponents 69-25 in the first half. We project that strong early-game performance to continue this week.

As I noted multiple times across BetQL platforms this week, our model has crushed 1st half spreads when these quarterbacks have started. We’ve gone 16-8 (66.7%) on 1st half spread bets in Sam Darnold’s starts and if you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $634 right now. Further, the model has gone 19-11 (63.3%) on 1st half spread bets in Kirk Cousins' starts and if you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $648 right now. These are some of the best NFL model trends of the week.

Therefore, not only is the power of BetQL’s projection behind this bet, but the historical performance of the model is. Also, just so you know, the model has gone 10-3 (76.9%) on ⭐⭐+ 1st half spread bets this season. If you bet $100 on those, you’d be up $609 right now. This is my favorite bet of the week for all of those reasons.

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Under 50.5 Points In Cowboys-Patriots ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL has gone 4-0 (100%) on O/U bets in Mac Jones' starts. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $364 right now. The total in this week’s New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys game is 50.5 and our model is listing the under as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value due to its 48-point projection. This is actually one of our free picks of the week, along with a max-value Cardinals-Browns bet!

This game will take place in New England and the Patriots average just 19.2 points per game while their opponents have put up 18.4. As a result, the under has gone 4-1 in their games and we’re projecting that to be the outcome yet again in this contest. 

Keep in mind that Bill Belichick doesn’t have the most talented team, but he will consistently do his best to make his opponents uncomfortable. We saw that when Tom Brady came back to Foxborough and numerous times against the NFL's best players over the years. With that being said, star Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is questionable while All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith and star cornerback Trevon Diggs are both banged up, but will play. Expect Belichick to target them and test their health while also taking either Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb out of the equation for Dak Prescott.

Offensively, Patriots OC Josh McDaniels will most likely try to establish the run with Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden factoring into the mix. If Belichick and the Patriots want to keep the hands out of Prescott’s hands for as long as possible, expect them to try to string together long, grueling drives in front of the home crowd. Love the under in this spot and BetQL’s Lucy Burdge even wrote about why she likes the Patriots ATS earlier this week.

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Underdog: Texans (+355) at Colts

 

As detailed in my player prop of the week article, BetQL is projecting Texans rookie quarterback Davis Mills to throw for 300 yards against this banged-up Indianapolis defense. Last week, Mills lit up the Patriots offense, going 21-29 for 312 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in a narrow 25-22 loss. His quarterback rating was 141.7 and he became the first rookie in NFL history to finish a game with 300 yards, 3 TD and a quarterback rating over 140.0.

This Colts pass defense got absolutely demolished by Lamar Jackson for 442 yards and 4 TD last week and are most likely going to be dealing with numerous injuries. Starting corner Rock Ya-Sin missed the last two games, starting safety Khari Willis is probably still not at 100% and both safety Andrew Sendejo and cornerback Xavier Rhodes suffered concussions and are in league protocol. Safety Julian Blackmon was also knocked out of last week’s game, so this secondary is a complete mess right now from a health standpoint, which adds fuel to the fire.

Indy has allowed a 73.2% completion percentage (30th), 8.5 yards per pass attempt (29th) and 11.6 yards per pass completion (25th). Further, 66.1% of the first downs they’ve allowed have come through the air. Teams have figured out how to limit Indy’s fearsome defensive line thus far, as indicated by the fact that the Colts rank last in the NFL in QB pressures (25), 28th in QB hits (21) and 17th in sacks (10). 

At +355, this bet has a lot of upside that’s tough to ignore. Per BetQL’s Texans-Colts game page, just 26% of public bettors are taking the Texans ML, but 52% of total money wagered in. That means this is a sharp bet and I’m all over it. Keep in mind Houston opened as a +420 underdog before nearly upsetting the Patriots 25-22 last week. Sprinkle some on the Texans and thank me if this cashes!

BetQL went 19-10 (65.5%) across all ⭐⭐⭐⭐+ NFL bets in Week 5. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $507 right now. Click the button below to get instant access to every best bet and insight available for Week 6!

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