One Team Stands Out In Giants-Jets Week 10 Turf War
The battle for MetLife Stadium features two teams with a combined 3-14 record, but one team is a true dumpster fire
- The New York Giants and New York Jets will square off in Week 10.
- The Giants are 2-7 (3-6 ATS) while the Jets are 1-7 (2-6 ATS).
- Since the start of the 2016 season, the Jets are 15-51 and are coming off a brutal loss to the previously-winless Miami Dolphins.
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- The Giants lost by six points in Week 8, five points in Week 9 and were trailing by one point heading into the fourth quarter before they imploded against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Therefore, they might not be quite as awful as their record indicates.
- BetQL’s NFL Model labels the Giants (+2.5) as the best bet in this matchup and lists the Giants’ -140 moneyline as a ★★★★ value. Further, the algorithm favors under the 43.5 point total.
While there are many storylines surrounding this matchup, two stand out. How will the Jets respond after last week’s loss and will Daniel Jones learn to take care of the football? Let’s explore.
Last Week’s Embarrassing Loss
Heading into last week’s contest against the winless Miami Dolphins, the Jets closed as 3.5-point road favorites. Our model listed the Dolphins +3.5 as a three-star value since both teams graded out similarly. In that matchup, the Jets had a D+ Team Grade, D QB Grade, D- Offense Grade and C Defense Grade in our algorithm. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had a D- Team Grade, D- QB Grade, F Offense Grade and D Defense Grade.
While the Dolphins couldn’t get anything going on the ground, Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like a Pro Bowler and completed 24-of-36 passes for 288 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Five different Dolphins caught three or more passes in the contest and Miami was in full control by the fourth quarter.
Sam Darnold went 27-for-39 with a touchdown and an interception and found Jamison Crowder for eight catches, 83 yards and a touchdown. While Le’Veon Bell’s 17 carries for 66 yards and eight receptions for 55 yards indicate that he had a solid day, most of his production occurred towards the end of the game when the Dolphins conceded short-yardage gains to limit any threat of a deep pass.
Miami scored 21 of their 26 points in the second quarter and New York scored six second-half points against the NFL’s worst defense.
That doesn’t exactly create any momentum for them in this week’s matchup against the Giants and Jets coach Adam Gase is definitely on the hot seat. Despite the fact that the winless Cincinnati Bengals and Dolphins exist, the Jets and Cleveland Browns are currently duking it out for the title as the NFL's biggest dumpster fire.
Daniel Jones’ Turnover Issues
As sad as this is, the Giants PR department is trying to create the storyline that Jones is on the verge of breaking a “significant” team rookie record. If he completes two passes this Sunday, he will pass Charlie Conerly’s mark of 162 completions that was set in 1948.
If your jaw is on the floor, pick it up!
In all seriousness, Jones’ three-turnover outing against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football accentuated the most problematic issue that the Giants offense has faced on a weekly basis. Jones now has 16 turnovers, which leads the NFL. His late-game struggles and giveaways on Monday night allowed the Cowboys to outscore the Giants 21-3 in the fourth quarter en route to a 19-point victory.
With that being said, turnovers are not a predictive stat and the Jets defense has forced 1.2 turnovers per game this season (19th in NFL) and just allowed interception-prone Fitzpatrick to carve them up. Due to his dual threat ability to make an impact in the passing and running attacks, expect Jones to have a big day on Sunday, especially since the Jets rank 6th in the NFL in rushing defense (89.2 yards allowed per game) and 24th against the pass (263.0 yards allowed per contest).
Since Evan Engram (foot) will miss the contest, expect Saquon Barkley to be relied upon more in the passing game, along with wideout Golden Tate. As seen many times in the past, if Barkley is fed the ball in open space, he can take it to the house anytime he touches the pigskin.
What BetQL’s Model Says
BetQL’s NFL Model labels the Giants (+2.5) as the best bet in this matchup and lists the Giants’ -140 moneyline as a ★★★★ value. Further, the algorithm favors under the 43.5 point total. Check out our game page for all the odds, trends, schedule analysis, starters and injuries before you place your bets!