The Jets Are Going To Have A Miserable Time In Denver

Denver is a double-digit favorite for a reason; take a look at these advanced stats

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  • The Denver Broncos (2-0) host the New York Jets (0-2) on Sunday, September 26 at 4:05pm EST. At the time of this writing, Denver was a -10.5 favorite and the over/under was 41.5 points. 

  • The Broncos have wins at the New York Giants (27-13) and at the Jacksonville Jaguars (23-13) to start the year while the Jets have fallen at the Carolina Panthers (19-14) and against the New England Patriots (25-6).

  • Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is off to an elite start with a 120.7 passer rating that ranks 5th in the NFL among starters.

  • Denver’s running back tandem of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams should also be in store for a big day, as will wideouts Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick

  • Finally, Denver’s pass defense has been the best in the NFL through two weeks and will look to stifle rookie Zach Wilson, who got embarrassed against New England last week. 

  • Keep reading to get some advanced insights.

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Steady Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater is off to a phenomenal start. Through two weeks, he’s gone 54-70 (77.1%) for 592 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions for an elite 120.7 passer rating. 

While those numbers came against the Giants and Jaguars, he ranks only behind Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray in that regard. For context, Tom Brady has a 113.3 passer rating so far, below Bridgewater. 

The main reason why he’s been so effective has been the play of his offensive line. Bridgewater has spent an NFL-high 3.15 seconds to throw in the pocket, on average. That’s the longest mark in the NFL and he’s just one of four starters to average three seconds or longer before throwing the ball. 

For context, Ben Roethlisberger has had an average of 2.41 seconds to release the ball and he’s off to a bad start. Bridgewater’s 77.1% completion rate ranks 2nd in the NFL to Baker Mayfield and he has a +11.5% completion rate above expectation, per Next Gen Stats (2nd in the NFL). 

BetQL is projecting him to deliver another efficient performance against the Jets in this game: 240 yards, two passing touchdowns, no interceptions. Remember that Bridgewater spent some time in New York, so this will be an extra-sweet win for him if he can continue to perform at an elite level.

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True Running Back Duo Is Dangerous

So far this year, veteran Melvin Gordon III has taken 24 carries for 132 rushing yards and a touchdown while rookie Javonte Williams has taken 27 carries for 109 rushing yards. Therefore, this is very much a committee and the team is very comfortable giving the rookie playing time. 

Opposing teams have defended both backs the same. Gordon has faced eight defenders in the box 29.2% of the time and Williams has faced eight defenders in the box 29.6% of the time. 

Like Bridgewater, both running backs have taken their time behind the line of scrimmage by design. 

Gordon has taken 3.09 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on carries (2nd-longest time in NFL) while Williams has taken 2.99 seconds (5th). This approach allows offensive linemen to set up running lanes, which has worked in the past for stars like Le’Veon Bell, for example.

Denver has rushed the ball 43.6% of the time (11th-most) so far and they should continue to be a balanced offense with weapons in both the running and passing attacks. BetQL is projecting Gordon to amass 50 rushing yards and Williams to record 45 and a touchdown in this matchup.

Receiving Roles Are Coming Into Form

It seems like wide receiver Courtland Sutton, tight end Noah Fant and wideout Tim Patrick are going to see a lot of volume in the passing game this season. 

Sutton looks like Bridgewater’s deep-ball threat. His 19.9 average targeted air yards ranks second in the NFL and he’s taken up 45% of the team’s air yards, the 8th-highest mark in the league. BetQL projects him to haul in 45 receiving yards in this matchup due to Denver being heavy favorites. 

Meanwhile, Patrick has done a nice job getting open off the line of scrimmage. His 3.9 average yards of separation ranks 17th in the NFL and BetQL is projecting him to rack up a team-leading 60 receiving yards in this game.

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This Pass Defense Is LEGIT

Through two games, Denver has allowed a 51.4% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence. That ranks 1st in the NFL and they’re just one of four teams to allow less than a 61.7% completion rate. 

Their 17.0 incompletions forced per game is also tops in the league while their 65.5 passer rating against ranks 2nd and 16.6% scoring possessions allowed also ranks 2nd.

Despite a 4.11% sack percentage and middling pressure numbers, Denver has stifled opposing passing attacks. They average 5.3 yards per pass attempt (4th-best), 184.0 passing yards allowed (5th) and have done all that while facing a 66.9% opposing pass play percentage (5th-highest).

Zach Wilson is going to be their third victim. BetQL is projecting him to throw for 200 yards and a touchdown and is projecting the Jets to only score 15.5 points. 

It’s Not All About Sacks, But They’ll Come 

Vic Fangio is a defensive mastermind. 

You don’t spend that much time in the league as an assistant if you’re not. 

Denver has five missed tackles a team through two weeks. That’s the best mark in the league. 

Although Bradley Chubb’s ankle injury was awful, it’s hard to ignore the fact that New York can’t protect Wilson. They allowed 29 pressures (tied for most in NFL), a 35.4% pressure rate (2nd-highest) and have surrendered 15 hurries (2nd-most) against the Panthers and Patriots.

Von Miller and his boys are going to eat.

Add in the home field advantage and Mile High air and you have the recipe for a dominant, blowout win for the Broncos in this contest. 

BetQL’s model has gone 7-2 (77.8%) across all bets in Wilson’s career starts. Want to see if the model is backing them or the Broncos? Click the button below and get a Day Pass for just $4.99. You’ll unlock the entire Week 3 NFL slate as well!

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🎧 NFL Week 3: New York @ Denver

Quinton Mayo, Ryan Horvat and Trysta Krick reveal whether or not they trust the New York Jets to cover against the Denver Broncos. 

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