Sun 1/24, 8:05 PM
GB -3.5 O/U 51
Sun 1/24, 11:40 PM
KC -3 O/U 54

Is This The Best Trend In The Raiders vs. Falcons Game?

Atlanta's offense searches for a spark against a lowly Las Vegas secondary

Football Schedule, Flickr


  • The Atlanta Falcons have averaged 23.1 points over their last seven games. This has led to the under hitting in 5-of-7.

  • Derek Carr's efficient season has led to consistent numbers on offense. This has been a large factor in the Las Vegas Raiders' 7-2-1 over/under record this season.

  • Atlanta's inconsistencies on offense has contributed to their 4-6 record ATS.

  • While the Raiders have gone 7-3 ATS, the Falcons (+3) have gone 3-2 as underdogs ATS this season.

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Unstable Falcons

Another season of underachieving is what Atlanta Falcons fans are feeling at this very moment. After blowing game after game early in this season, the Falcons had one final chance to make a run this season. This all started with a battle against a Drew Brees-less New Orleans Saints. Instead of coming out firing with a chance to steal a victory, the Falcons showed little life in their 24-9 loss. They now sit at 3-7 with a slim at best chance for the playoffs.

The weak performance on offense saw the under hit for the fifth time in Atlanta's last seven games.

No one would argue the talent Atlanta has on the offensive side of the ball. Led by Matt Ryan, there's first-round talent across the field. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley form one of the best receiving duos in the league. Consistency is what the Falcons lack. They’ve scored 34 or more three times, but have also produced 16 points or less on three occasions. It's no wonder that Atlanta has gone 4-6 ATS this season.

Against the Saints, Ryan completed only 19-of-37 pass attempts for 232 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. To make matters worse, the Falcons couldn’t get anything going on the ground, as Todd Gurley was held to just 26 yards rushing. Atlanta will look to improve on those numbers against a burnable Las Vegas Raiders' defense in Week 12. For what it's worth, Vegas allows the fifth-most air yards (273.6) per game this season.

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Thrilling Vegas Offense

After defeating the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season, it looked like the Raiders were primed to do it again. With less than two minutes in the game, the Las Vegas took a 31-28 lead thanks to a touchdown reception by Jason Witten. The defense had a tall task in front of them if they wanted to stop Patrick Mahomes.

It only took Mahomes seven plays to score the go-ahead touchdown. Las Vegas' defense showed no resistance and couldn’t force overtime. It’s a disappointing ending, especially after the offensive performance. Derek Carr showed poise and talent all game, and Josh Jacobs ran for some tough yards on the ground. In the end though, it wasn’t enough.

That being said, the Raiders have already beaten the Chiefs and were minutes away from doing it again. That alone should give them the confidence to get on a run before the playoffs. At 6-4, they’re currently the final seed in the AFC standings.

Carr's 108.7 rating is currently the best of his career. With 19 touchdowns to three picks, he has been wildly efficient. The consistent scoring has the the Raiders' over/under record at 7-2-1 this season.

Best Trend?

On paper, the Falcons have the offensive firepower to make this an interesting game. There's no doubt that the Raiders will move the ball offensively against the Falcons' defense. The question is whether the Falcons can keep up. Based on how they played this week, the smart answer would be no, but we’ve seen this Atlanta offense explode before. Don’t be surprised to see a bit of a letdown from Las Vegas after their recent loss.

The Raiders have been great ATS this season, covering 7-of-10 times. On the other side, the Falcons are just 4-6 ATS this season. However, Atlanta (+3) is an underdog in this one, and they've gone 3-2 ATS in this scenario.

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