According to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chicago Bears aren't exactly going to be lighting up the scoreboard in 2022. The site has the Bears listed as the second favorite to be the lowest scoring team in the NFL at +600, just behind the Houston Texans who are listed as the favorite at +550. These types of bets are always intriguing to make, but I would never recommend betting large on them, simply due to the volatility of how a season might play out. Which is exactly what we are going to be discussing here today, and why you should always be cautious betting on a new regime to either succeed or fail during their first season with control over the team.
You might immediately think that this Bears team is going to be horrendous on offense with the lack of offensive line talent and skill position talent that they currently have employed. It isn't a ridiculous thought to have, and of course, the constant PTSD Bears fans have of Matt Nagy roaming the sidelines with his visor and inept offensive play calling "Be You" sheet will certainly make you want to bet on the Bears to be the lowest scoring team. However, I would recommend caution with that. Let's try to forget how bad Chicago has been on offense the previous few years and focus on what they have in front of them now. True, they lack talent at the skill positions, and the offensive line could be better. But, there are many changes that occurred not only with the players on the field this offseason, but in the front office and coaching room as well.
Ryan Poles comes in from the Kansas City Chiefs organization as the new general manager, while new head coach Matt Eberflus comes in as a defensive minded strategist from the Indianapolis Colts. It isn't impossible to believe that these changes alone could make the Bears more viable offensively, simply because the old regime has taken its leave, and a new one with a different plan has come in. New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will get his chance to build an offense around second year QB Justin Fields, and perhaps he will actually be able to build one around the strengths of his QB rather than what might fit his own offense. Fields is who will determine if this season is successful or not on offense, as great QB's can make average skill talent look great. If Fields improves and can lead this offense with his arm and with his legs, the offensive line play will be slightly less important if they can get him out of the pocket. Darnell Mooney is a capable receiver, and a guy who can burn defenses deep. Cole Kmet has the opportunity of a lifetime in this offense, as he is most likely the second option behind Mooney at this point. Both players are very talented, and so is Fields, but the Bears never could seem to use them correctly under Nagy.
The Bears schedule also really helps their ability to score points and play around with the offense to find what works. They have one of the easiest in the NFL, so they should be able to experiment at times and come up with some explosive plays against bad teams and defenses. At this point, I would never bet Chicago to score the least amount of points in the league, because there is talent there that could shine bright under new coaching and management. Fields has all the tools you want in a star QB in this league, and the schedule is Charmin soft for him and the offense to get things right.
I'd much rather place a bet on the Carolina Panthers or Seattle Seahawks at +900, or a long shot with the Washington Commanders at +2000.
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