Is A Close Game Between The Falcons And Panthers On TNF Inevitable?

Quick-Hitters

• Teddy Bridgewater is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, totaling 1,930 yards (ranking fifth) through the air. His average of 275.7 passing yards per game could gain a boost against an Atlanta Falcons' defense that allows 29.6 points per game this season.

• The Falcons have gone 2-5 ATS this season while the Carolina Panthers are 4-3 in the category.

• Matt Ryan and Bridgewater prop bets could be intriguing in this divisional battle.

• A decision on Christian McCaffrey's return could be last-minute.

• Carolina (-140) is favored by 2.5 points over Atlanta (+120) with the over/under set at 49 total points. CLICK HERE FOR LIVE GAME ODDS!
  

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Panthers' Offense Set To Thrive

The Carolina Panthers opened the year with back-to-back losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina followed that by winning three-straight games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and Atlanta Falcons. Since then, they’ve suffered one-score losses to the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints.

The Panthers are 4-3 against the spread and the under has gone 4-3. On offense, Carolina prefers to rely on an efficient passing game. They pass the ball on 57.2 percent of their offensive plays, which ranks 14th in the NFL in pass rate. Teddy Bridgewater is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, totaling 1,930 yards (ranking fifth) through the air. His average of 275.7 passing yards could gain a boost against a poor Atlanta defense.

Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady was renowned for his downfield passing attack when he was the passing game coordinator at LSU, and he has successfully brought something similar to the NFL, despite Bridgewater’s reputation as a dink-and-dunk quarterback. Carolina ranks 19th in the yards/rush, averaging 4.1 yards per tote. Christian McCaffrey went down early in the season with an injury, so they’ve had to rely on Mike Davis and his 4.0 yards per carry average. However, there's speculation that McCaffrey may play in this game.

The Panthers’ big problem on offense has been their poor red zone play. Carolina ranks 28th in red zone touchdown rate, scoring touchdowns on just 52.0 percent of their red zone opportunities. On defense, Carolina ranks 17th in yards per play allowed (5.6). A McCaffrey return would certainly boost these odds, including Bridgewaters' over/under passing yards prop.

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Atlanta's Consistent Habits

The Atlanta Falcons are having a wildly frustrating year. In 2019, they finished the campaign winning six of their last eight games. However, this year has been characterized by blown leads and nightmarish fourth quarters. They’ve broken the hearts of many bettors who’ve had the stomach to back them, going 2-5 ATS so far.

Offensively, the Falcons could be characterized as having an average air attack and a weak running game. Atlanta ranks 10th in passing play rate, throwing the ball on 61.1 percent of their offensive plays. The offense depends on Matt Ryan heavily. Atlanta averages just 3.8 yards per rush attempt, placing them 29th among the league's 32 teams. The Falcons average 26.3 points per game, making this game a strong contender to become a shootout. Those scoring numbers are helped greatly by their ability to take care of the football. Atlanta gives the ball away on just 7.4 percent of their offensive drives, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, an argument could be made that they have the worst defense in the NFL. They give up 6.6 yards per play, the highest average in the entire league. The Falcons allow opponents to score touchdowns on 73.1 percent of their red zone attempts, which ranks 28th. They give up 29.6 points per game (26th in the NFL) and it’s no wonder they have so many blown leads on their resume.

What To Expect

For the Panthers to win this game, they must attack the Falcons through the air. Atlanta’s pass defense has been poor all season and there's no reason that Carolina shouldn’t be able to take advantage of it. Bridgewater ranks second in the NFL in completion rate at 72.2 percent. Even if McCaffrey isn't activated, he'll able to get the ball to Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore in a consistent fashion.

For the Atlanta to win this game, Ryan must be elite on third down. Matt Rhule’s defense has proven that they can stifle teams on early downs. However, third down has given Carolina trouble throughout the year. The Falcons has the weapons to get big chunks of yardage even if they're faced with third-and-longs.

This should be a high-scorer and the two quarterbacks could log some big days through the air. Prop bets should be exciting in this one.