Evaluating Terry McLaurin's Receiving Yards Prop

• Terry McLaurin’s 2020 receiving yards prop is set at 1,050.5 (DraftKings).

• The unlikely emergence of the Washington Redskins rookie was arguably the only bright spot for the team in 2019.

• The established chemistry and improvement of McLaurin and quarterback Dwayne Haskins will prove to be beneficial to McLaurin’s 2020 stat line.

• McLaurin’s projected sophomore progression and the Redskins pass-favorable schedule could lead to an increase in yardage.

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Raw Talent

In the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, the Washington Redskins selected Terry McLaurin, a 6’0” receiver with a 4.35 40-yard dash out of Ohio State. McLaurin’s speed made him a productive deep threat, which resulted in 919 receiving yards on 58 receptions with seven TDs across 14 games.

Additionally, McLaurin had an impressive 15.8 yards per reception, good for 13th in the NFL, which ranks him ahead of superstars like Tyreek Hill and Julio Jones. If the Redskins can find any sort of consistency or improvement at the quarterback position, McLaurin will be poised for a big sophomore season as their number-one receiver.

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The Haskins Effect

A former Heisman finalist and Ohio State alumni, Dwayne Haskins' rookie season was nothing but disappointing. The rookie quarterback completed only 58.6% of his passes at just 6.7 yards per attempt, while only starting seven games in 2019. Despite these poor numbers, Haskins and McLaurin have chemistry from their days at Ohio State, which we saw come to light at the end of the 2019 season.

With Haskins at quarterback, McLaurin saw a target share increase from 17.1 percent to 22.1 percent. In weeks 15 and 16, McLaurin saw 14 targets, 12 of which he caught for 216 yards. We can hope to see this chemistry grow as both players naturally progress during their second season together.

The Bottom Line

In 2019, McLaurin averaged 65.6 yards per game. Had he played all 16, he would have ended the season with nearly 1,050 receiving yards. This coming season, the Redskins will face the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions, all of which finished among the worst passing defenses in 2019. It's worth noting that the NFC East secondaries are poor.

Not only will the Redskins face many awful passing defenses, but their overall lack of talent will lead to a game script which encourages Haskins to throw the ball. That being said, McLaurin caught 62.4% of his targets, despite the poor quarterback play. We can expect Haskins to improve as a passer and with the departure of Chris Thompson, McLaurin should see a vast increase in targets. An increase in target volume, improved quarterback play, and a favorable passing schedule should allow McLaurin to eclipse the 1,050 yard mark with ease. Take the over on McLaurin's receiving yardage prop.

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