Hammer This Side Of Saquon Barkley's Yardage Prop

• Saquon Barkley is entering his third season in the NFL. The Penn State product shot onto the scene in 2018, totaling over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns.

• Nobody is debating that Barkley is an electric talent. The problem in 2019, however, was his shoddy offensive line and his inability to fight nagging injuries. Even though he missed three games and was clearly hampered in others, Barkley still piled up an impressive 1,441 yards from scrimmage.

• The combined rushing and receiving yard prop of 1,625.5 for the New York Giants back is shockingly low. As long as he shows the ability to stay healthy like he did in his rookie campaign, Barkley should have no problem smashing this.

• At -110 (DraftKings), there's certainly some value to nail this yardage prop bet.

A Freak Talent

If we rewind to 2018, Saquon Barkley was taken fourth overall in the NFL Draft by the New York Giants. At the time, it was seen as a reach by a franchise that needed to replace their quarterback, Eli Manning. It's not that taking a player of Barkley’s caliber that high was far-fetched, but taking a running back so early tends to be a bad allocation of assets. However, after his rookie season, not many were complaining.

Barkley shot onto the scene. He showed the burst, explosion, and lower-body strength that made scouts fall in love with him. He led the NFL in all-purpose yardage, totaling 2,028 yards en route to winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. It wasn’t just his rushing prowess. Barkley was well-rounded. He caught an astounding 91 passes as a rookie, flashing Christian McCaffrey-like skill in a Giants uniform. The sky is the limit for this young superstar.

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Sophomore Slump

Now, before we get any further, let me clarify something. Barkley had a phenomenal second season in the NFL. The only problem was, it didn’t live up to his lofty standards. After rushing for over 100 yards in his first two games of 2019, Barkley was slowed by an ankle injury that kept him out over three games. Upon returning, it was clear that he wasn’t exactly 100 percent. He was lacking the burst that made him such a dangerous player on all downs.

After returning in Week 7, Barkley struggled over his next five games, averaging only 44.8 rushing yards per tilt. This included a 13-carry, one-yard performance against the New York Jets, in which media members questioned the Giants performance staff for rushing Barkley back into the fold too quickly. Eventually, we saw the Barkley of 2018. In his last three games of 2019, he averaged 179.6 yards from scrimmage. In his Week 16 contest against the Washington Redskins, Barkley showed us his true potential, rushing for 179 yards and a touchdown, while adding 90 yards receiving and a touchdown on top.

Bet On This Side Of The Line

Fast forwarding to the 2020 season, Barkley’s combined rushing and receiving yard prop is at 1,625.5 yards. Looking at his body of work over his first two seasons, that is criminally low. In his rookie campaign, he averaged 126.75 all-purpose yards per game. In his injury shortened 2019 campaign, Barkley averaged 110.84 all-purpose yards.

As you can see, even though Barkley was hampered for most of the 2019 campaign, and had a few clunkers of performances, his per-game averages were not too distant from his historic 2018 campaign. Assuming he stays healthy for all 16 games this season, Barkley only has to average a little over 101 all-purpose yards per game. Again, barring health, that is extremely doable. 

Additionally, I’m a little higher on the Giants than most this season. They made some very important additions to their offensive line, adding two top-100 draft picks in April. Daniel Jones is expected to build upon the flashes he showed as a rookie, and with a solid group of pass-catchers, Barkley should have more holes than in years past. If Barkley stays healthy this season, he not only has the potential to go over his scrimmage yardage total...he may shatter it.

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