DraftKings NFL DFS Values: Week 3
Find salary relief with these stellar options in Week 3
- Quarterbacks Jameis Winston ($5,400) and Jacoby Brissett ($5,200) are both in solid spots with low price tags this week.
- Devonta Freeman ($4,900) seems criminally underpriced while Frank Gore ($4,400) could turn back the clock in his matchup.
- Love DFS and want to give betting a try? Get a 50% deposit bonus up to $500 with your next deposit on DraftKings Sportsbook. Learn more!
- Nelson Agholor ($3,600) and Curtis Samuel ($4,800) can both benefit from recent news surrounding their respective teams.
- Greg Olsen ($4,800) and Jared Cook ($3,800) are two tight end plays with upside while the 49ers defense ($3,200) looks legit through the first two weeks.
There are a lot of studs you’re going to want to target in your DFS lineups this week. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will be facing off in Arrowhead Stadium, Ezekiel Elliot is at home against the Dolphins (one of the worst defenses in recent memory) and Dalvin Cook is a home favorite against the Raiders.
To get to your favorite superstars, you’re going to have to save money somewhere and there are plenty of choices this week (particularly at wide receiver where you could fill an entire column with the likes of Devin Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, DeVante Parker, James Washington, Emmanuel Sanders, John Ross, Mecole Hardman and more).
Jameis Winston ($5,400)
Entering the season with high expectations, Jaboo had a disastrous opening game against San Francisco which seemed to sour the entire fantasy industry on Winston. Tampa’s line couldn’t protect him against a genuinely fearsome 49ers pass rush, but more to the point the design of the offense and Winston’s oft-question decision making left much to be desired in Week 1.
While Winston’s numbers rose to “meh” last Thursday against the Panthers (16-25, 208 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions), he was victimized by drops on sure touchdowns by Mike Evans in the first quarter and Breshard Perriman in the third. If you added the 45 yards and two additional touchdowns to Winston’s statline, his salary coming into this week’s contest would much higher.
The Buccaneers have an implied team total of 27.5 points against a Giants defense that ranks 31st against the pass according to DVOA and has already allowed an average of 27.8 fantasy points to quarterbacks due largely to their non-existent pass rush, a welcome development for a Buccaneer team that’s struggled in pass protection. This is Tampa’s last game at Raymond James Stadium until November 10 so they’ll likely be looking to find their rhythm on offense and get both Mike Evans and O.J. Howard going before a five game road stretch.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,200)
Jacoby Brissett has been decent in his first two games as the Colts starter, posting five touchdowns against one interception while throwing for just 336 yards, but those were two road games against opponents that play slow and have good defenses. Getting to face the Falcons in the RCA Dome will be a pleasant departure for the dual-threat quarterback.
Atlanta’s defense is, by design, vulnerable in the middle of the field and the Colts have two tight ends in Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle who can exploit that weakness. Additionally, pass-catching back Nyheim Hines makes for an intriguing sleeper against a defense that’s allowed the most receptions to running backs in every season of Dan Quinn’s tenure. To top it off, T.Y. Hilton has been much better at home throughout his career and seems to already have a connection with Brissett as he’s averaging 21.5 DK points per game.
With a current implied score of Colts 24 Falcons 23, Indianapolis will likely put the pedal to the floor in an effort to score as many points as possible in a game with significant shootout potential.
Devonta Freeman ($4,900)
There were high hopes for Devonta Freeman to return to a place of fantasy relevance heading into 2019. Freeman entered the year healthy and the backfield was seemingly his with Tevin Coleman in San Francisco, but the early returns for the former fantasy first rounder have not been impressive, largely due to tough matchups against the Vikings and Eagles.
This looks to be the week things turn around for Freeman and it couldn’t happen at a more appealing price point. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has proclaimed that he wants the offense to be run-first moving forward as Atlanta heads to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that’s allowed 28.3 fantasy points per game to the running back position, the third most in the NFL, and who maybe without last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, as Darius Leonard is in concussion protocol.
With the Falcons sitting as one-point underdogs, this game should be close with the potential for a barnburner. Freeman’s on the right side of his splits, averaging 4.43 yards per carry on the road vs 4.10 at home and 4.52 yards per carry in domes vs 3.95 outdoors, and poised to be a low-owned gem on this week’s main slate.
Frank Gore ($4,400)
Frank Gore has lost more steps in his fifteen year NFL career than most players are ever blessed with, but he’s somehow managed to stay ahead of father time. A month ago Gore figured to be an afterthought in Buffalo’s backfield, but with Shady McCoy in Kansas City offense and rookie sensation Devin Singletary likely to miss this week’s game with a hamstring issue, Gore looks to be the Bills’ lead back this week.
The spot is extremely favorable for Gore as the Bills are six point home favorites against the Bengals, who have surrendered an NFL-high 35.4 fantasy points per game to the running back position and rank 31st in run defense according to DVOA.
Gore looked spry against the Giants on Sunday, rushing for 68 yards and a touchdown while catching two balls for fifteen yards, and he should easily hit value if Singletary indeed sits.
Nelson Agholor ($3,600)
Asholor posted a monster stat line against the Falcons on Sunday night (eight catches, 107 yards and a touchdown) and is poised for another stellar outing against the Lions this week.
Philadelphia’s pass-happy attack looks to be short on receiving options with Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goedert doubtful to play. With DeSean Jackson also nursing a groin injury and liable to draw Detroit’s top corner Darius Slay in shadow coverage, this sets up to be a game where Carson Wentz targets the versatile Agholor early and often.
Because the Eagles played in Sunday’s late game, pricing does not reflect the increased market share Agholor can expect to receive and he is simply mis-priced. Roster him with confidence.
Curtis Samuel ($4,800)
The third-year speedster out of Ohio State was one of the preseason’s most buzzed-about wide receiver and Samuel will be following Thursday’s 13-target game with one of the best matchups in the NFL.
At 21.36 seconds per play, the Arizona Cardinals are running at the fastest pace in the NFL by a wide margin. The second fastest team in the NFL this season are the Carolina Panthers at 23.94 seconds per play. In 2018, the Colts were the fastest team at 26.30 seconds per play. This may be the most snaps we’ll see in an NFL game all season.
Until Patrick Peterson returns from suspension, the Cardinals’ defensive backfield is one of the least talented in the league and should be easy pickings for Samuel who has amassed 17 targets in his first two games for a 19 percent market share. With a 15.2 yard average depth of target, Samuel has received 33 percent of the Panthers’ air yards.
Samuel is a safe bet to see double-digit targets and with his speed and elusiveness, that puts his ceiling among the highest in the game this week.
Greg Olsen ($4,800)
As outlined in the Curtis Samuel section, this game will be played at an incredibly fast pace and may see the most snaps in regulation of any game this season. More snaps means Olsen’s twenty percent target share (18 through two games) and twenty-three percent air yard share (176 yards) will be even more valuable.
In his 13th NFL season, Olsen appears to be fully healthy after two injury-riddled seasons and has reasserted himself as a viable option in Carolina’s offense, catching ten balls for 146 yards in the first two games of the season. Even though Cam Newton will miss this game due to injury, Olson will undoubtedly be a major part of the team’s passing offense in a pace-up spot.
Olsen’s priced too low for the game environment and when considering the opponent (the Cardinals have allowed an unfathomable 45.4 fantasy points to tight ends in the first two games) and he’s one of the most appealing plays on the entire slate.
Jared Cook ($3,800)
When drafted into duty against Aaron Donald and the Rams defense, Teddy Bridgewater targeted Cook seven times on Sunday afternoon. While Cook was only able to secure two balls for twenty-five yards, the volume was a very positive sign of things to come.
Cook signed with the Saints in the offseason after a career season in Oakland where he averaged 12.1 PPR points per game and has assumed the tight end movement role that made young Jimmy Graham such a valuable fantasy asset.
While Bridgewater looked far from impressive on Sunday, we can expect a much stronger performance from the signal caller who was poised for a breakout season in Minnesota before a non-contact knee injury derailed his career. Sean Payton has a week to build a game plan around Bridgewater’s skillset and given how vulnerable Seattle’s pass funnel defense has proven to be against tight ends in the early part of the season (they’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to the position at 12.6 per game), we can expect Cook to be a large part of it.
San Francisco 49ers ($3,200)
When targeting fantasy defenses, we search for teams likely to face a large number of passing attempts as most scoring takes place by way of sacks and fumbles. With San Francisco sitting as a 6.5 point home favorite as of Tuesday, we can expect their fearsome pass rush to see a lot of dropbacks from first time starting quarterback Mason Rudolph.
The 49ers have totaled seven sacks and four interceptions in their first two games, and a matchup with an inexperienced QB with below-average arm strength looks like manna from heaven. Add in San Francisco’s offensive firepower and Pittsburgh’s schematic difficulties without all-world talents like Lev Bell and Antonio Brown and this is an ideal defense to target in GPPs.