49ers Face Major Test Against Underdog Vikings
As the Saints found out, this Vikings team cannot be overlooked
Vikings at 49ers
Saturday 1/11, 4:35pm EST
- The San Francisco 49ers will host the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round of the NFC Playoffs on Saturday 1/11/20 at 4:35pm EST.
- The line opened at +/- 7.5 with the 49ers as the clear favorites and the over/under opened at 45.5 points. Track line movement leading up to kickoff here!
- The Vikings enter this game with the following records: 11-6 overall, 10-7 ATS, 5-4 overall (5-4 ATS) on the road, 2-3 overall (3-2 ATS) as an underdog
- The 49ers enter this game with the following records: 13-3 overall, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-2 overall (3-4-1 ATS) at home, 9-2 overall (4-6-1 ATS) as a favorite
- The OVER has gone 9-8 in Minnesota’s games and 8-8 in San Francisco’s contests.
Raise your hand if you expected the Vikings to go into New Orleans and beat down Drew Brees and the Saints! Per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard, public and sharp bettors leaned towards the Saints +7, but a whopping 85% of the total money wagered went on New Orleans’ moneyline. Therefore, it’s safe to say that Kirk Cousins and company shocked the betting community. Kyle Rudolph’s walk-off touchdown catch in overtime summed up Minnesota’s season in a nutshell: it hasn’t been pretty, but they’ve gotten the job done. With Dalvin Cook, a healthy Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Rudolph and a rejuvenated Cousins leading their offense and with a talented defensive unit that has a proven ability to get after opposing quarterbacks, there’s a lot to like on Minnesota’s roster. Although it took an overtime drive to get the job done, you can make an argument that Minnesota’s offense core is superior to San Francisco’s. It’s also worth mentioning that the Vikings defense did the unthinkable: held the NFL’s leading wideout Michael Thomas to seven catches for 70 yards while holding Alvin Kamara to 21 yards rushing on seven carries and 34 yards receiving on eight catches in the Superdome. Bettors shouldn’t gloss over that. It makes sense that the Niners are heavy home favorites against Minnesota, but their performance last week creates a bit of confusion for bettors.
The Niners’ run-heavy offense features brilliant play designs built by the brain of Kyle Shanahan. The three-headed monster of Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman will be on full display in this contest and Mostert in particular has emerged as the team’s lead back, averaging a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry with 772 yards and eight touchdowns, all of which are team-highs. George Kittle surpassed the 1,000-yard receiving barrier while a healthy Emmanuel Sanders and emerging Deebo Samuel will give Jimmy Garoppolo solid options to throw to outside of their dual-threat running backs. However, San Francisco’s defense faded as the regular season progressed. That occurred, in part, due to a few injuries, but it’s worth noting that they allowed 46 points to the Saints, 29 to the Falcons, 31 to the Rams and 21 to the Seahawks, respectively, in the final four games of the regular season. Luckily for the Niners, they had a week off to rest and Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt are all slated to return for this matchup. While some rust could certainly be there, adding those three starters back into the fold is huge for the 49ers. All-in-all, San Fran has been a Super Bowl favorite for most of the regular season because they're elite (when at full strength).
Last week’s result proved that this Vikings team is no joke. Although the Niners proved to be one of the best teams on both sides of the ball all year, it’s easy to see a scenario in which either team wins vs. the spread, on the moneyline or on the total. More than ever, it’s a great time to utilize the tools we have here at BetQL to help you make the most informed, data-driven bets possible.