Chiefs Listed As Large Home Favorites Against Texans At Arrowhead

The oddsmakers fully expect Kansas City to win outright, but they'll have a large spread to cover

Chris Murphy, Flickr

Texans at Chiefs

Sunday 1/12, 3:05pm EST


  • The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs on Sunday 1/12/20 at 3:05pm EST. 

  • The line opened at +/- 7.5 with the Chiefs as the clear favorites and the over/under opened at 50 points, the highest of the four playoff games. Track line movement leading up to kickoff here

  • The Texans enter this game with the following records: 11-6 overall, 8-8-1 ATS, 5-3 overall (5-2-1 ATS) on the road, 5-4 (6-3) as an underdog

  • The Chiefs enter this game with the following records: 12-4 overall, 12-4 ATS, 5-3 overall (6-2 ATS) at home, 10-3 overall (10-3 ATS) as a favorite

  • The UNDER has gone 10-7 in Houston’s games and 8-8 in Kansas City’s contests.


It certainly wasn’t pretty and took an overtime field goal to decide the game, but the Texans took down the Buffalo Bills 22-19 last week to earn their way into this game. Quarterback Deshaun Watson did his best superhero impression, going 20-for-25 for 247 yards and a touchdown passing while adding 55 yards on 14 carries with another score. Carlos Hyde, who had a resurgent regular season, rushing for over 1,000 yards, struggled, taking 16 carries for just 48 yards on the ground last week, but faces a much more favorable matchup against a vulnerable Chiefs run defense. Expect another heavy dose of DeAndre Hopkins and for Kenny Stills and Will Fuller to serve as deep-ball threats. In all, Houston’s offense is very concentrated, which will make it essential for at least one more piece (perhaps backup running back Duke Johnson or tight end Darren Fells) to step up. The huge test for Houston will come on the defensive side of the ball, however. According to Football Outsiders’ all-encompassing DVOA metric, the Texans are ranked as the 26th-best defense heading into this matchup. Getting J.J. Watt back last week is certainly a major plus, but they’ll face off against Patrick Mahomes and a dangerous Chiefs offense that has the potential to put up 40 points on any defense in the NFL. 

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Not to be boring, but we already know what to expect from Kansas City’s offense. The reigning MVP quarterback will have Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and his slew of speedsters to throw to while Damien Williams will lead a committee of running backs. Kansas City has scored 23-plus points in 11-straight games and is implied to score right around 30 in this matchup. The important discussion point when it comes to evaluating the Chiefs’ chances to win and cover in this matchup is the progression of their defense. Over the last five weeks of the season, KC allowed their opponents to score in single digits three different times (including just three points in two different games): nine to the Raiders, 16 to the New England Patriots, three to the Broncos, three to the Bears and 21 to the Los Angeles Chargers. Arrowhead Stadium is a very intimidating place for opposing teams to play, especially in the postseason. Therefore, if the home fans can effectively cheer on their surging defense, it could end up being a very, very long afternoon for the Texans. 


At times last week, Watson looked unstoppable. He will have to be at his very best in order to lead his team to an outright victory, but it’s reasonable to assume that a blowout Chiefs win or a close Chiefs win are in the realistic range of outcomes. Therefore, it’s difficult to project which team is the best bet against the spread with simple analysis. Based on the potential game scripts, it’s also difficult to project if the over or under is the best bet. More than ever, it’s a great time to utilize the tools we have here at BetQL to help you make the most informed, data-driven bets possible. 

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