NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Sleeper Pick

The 2022 NFL Draft is officially over, and we now know where all the rookies will be playing their first season in the pros. With that, of course, comes the odds of who will be the top rookie next year. The Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released at most sportsbooks, and immediately my attention was drawn to the quarterbacks. If you know anything about the NFL, you know that the QBs are immediately the most likely to win the award simply because of the position they play. Even if a QB has a "good" season, but someone else who doesn't play the position has a great one, the QB still could win the award over them. Yeah, I know, but that's just the way the league works at this point.

The first pick at the position was Kenny Pickett. He could easily win the award, but the question is if he will get enough playing time. He'll be battling former 2nd overall pick Mitch Trubisky for the starting job, but the veteran usually has the edge over a rookie. Malik Willis has the same problem in Tennessee, where he will almost certainly be the backup to Ryan Tannehill for at least the start of the season. Matt Corral definitely has a shot to get some real playing time in Carolina, but the Panthers still have the Sam Darnold problem, and they will give him a chance to win the job.

The only QB in this draft that I see with a serious chance to immediately make an impact for his team is former Cincinnati star Desmond Ridder, who was selected by the Falcons. Ridder was great for the Bearcats and led his team to the College Football Playoff last season as the first non-Power 5 team to make the Playoff. With Matt Ryan's departure to Indianapolis, it will be between him and veteran Marcus Mariota. However, there is a difference here. When Falcons head coach Arthur Smith took over as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans in 2019, the team benched Mariota for Tannehill. Smith doesn't seem to have much faith in the former #2 pick, and if he struggles, he could be benched quickly.

Over the last two years with the Las Vegas Raiders, Mariota threw only 30 passes in the regular season and dealt with some injuries that kept him out. I think Ridder gets his opportunity sooner rather than later.

At +1400, there's some value there for him to win ROTY.