The New Orleans Saints (5-6, 5-6 ATS) host the Dallas Cowboys (7-4, 8-3 ATS) in the Week 13 edition of Thursday Night Football. This should be an exciting matchup to watch and bet on, as Dak Prescott and Dallas’ star-studded offense takes on fun-to-watch dual threat Taysom Hill, who will make his first start at quarterback for the Saints this season. There are a number of model trends and team trends to key in on this week and this game has a few of them, as you’ll see below. Keep reading to check out a player prop value and one of our model’s best bets below!
Under Sean Payton, the Saints (+6) have consistently come to play against solid offensive opponents. In fact, they’ve gone a dominant 50-20 ATS against teams that average 24+ points per game. Dallas (-6) ranks 3rd in the NFL in points per game (29.6), so this trend is active.
However, it’s important to note that the Cowboys have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS against NFC opponents this season, thus making this a very difficult game to get a read on… if you’re not consulting BetQL’s model. We’re giving one team a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ edge: is it the Saints (+6) at home or the Cowboys (-6) on the road? Click the button below to get a Day Pass and instantly find out!
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The player prop that’s sticking out to me in this matchup is Dak Prescott over 283.5 passing yards. BetQL is projecting him to throw for 300 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and he’s in a dreamy spot against a New Orleans defense that has allowed a ridiculous 333.0 yards to opposing quarterbacks at home this season. For reference, the next-worst team is the Baltimore Ravens at 288.8, so there’s a lot of value in targeting Prescott here. The Cowboys QB has shown the ability to rack up insane yardage in multiple games this year, including two 400+ yard outings. Don’t be shocked if he puts up crazy numbers in this one. Click the button above and subscribe to BetQL to see every player prop value the model identified!
Following his activation from the reserve/COVID-19 list, Cooper got back on the practice field Wednesday as a limited participant, marking his first activity since testing positive for the virus back on Nov. 19. Coach Mike McCarthy noted Tuesday that Cooper still had some lingering symptoms, including a cough, but he's now put himself in a position to keep his absence to two games, per David Helman of the Cowboys' official site. While he's expected to be active Thursday, Cooper may have a limited snap count, but Dallas seemingly will have its top wide receiver trio of Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup together for just the third time this season.
Kamara maintained limited listings on all three of the Saints' Week 13 injury reports as he attempts to make his way back from an MCL sprain that has forced him to miss the past three contests. At the same time, Mark Ingram (knee) was a full participant Monday through Wednesday and is ready to handle as many backfield reps as needed if Kamara has to sit out a fourth consecutive game. The Saints will reveal Kamara's availability about 90 minutes before Thursday's 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
Our model is listing multiple edges in this matchup, and one of them is on the first half spread. BetQL is listing the Saints +3.5 versus the first half spread as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ value and projects New Orleans at +2. Under Coach Payton, the Saints have gone 27-14 against the first half spread following two consecutive no-covers and dozens of data points accounted for this projection.