As detailed in my player prop of the week article, BetQL is projecting Texans rookie quarterback Davis Mills to throw for 300 yards against this banged-up Indianapolis defense. Last week, Mills lit up the New England Patriots offense, going 21-29 for 312 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in a narrow 25-22 loss. His quarterback rating was 141.7 and he became the first rookie in NFL history to finish a game with 300 yards, 3 TD and a quarterback rating over 140.0.
This Colts pass defense got absolutely demolished by Lamar Jackson for 442 yards and 4 TD last week and are most likely going to be dealing with numerous injuries. Starting corner Rock Ya-Sin missed the last two games, starting safety Khari Willis is probably still not at 100% and both safety Andrew Sendejo and cornerback Xavier Rhodes suffered concussions and are in league protocol. Safety Julian Blackmon was also knocked out of last week’s game, so this secondary is a complete mess right now from a health standpoint, which adds fuel to the fire.
Indy has allowed a 73.2% completion percentage (30th), 8.5 yards per pass attempt (29th) and 11.6 yards per pass completion (25th). Further, 66.1% of the first downs they’ve allowed have come through the air. Teams have figured out how to limit Indy’s fearsome defensive line thus far, as indicated by the fact that the Colts rank last in the NFL in QB pressures (25), 28th in QB hits (21) and 17th in sacks (10).
At +355, this bet has a lot of upside that’s tough to ignore, even if just 31% of public bettors are on it, per BetQL’s live data. Keep in mind Houston opened as a +420 underdog before nearly upsetting the Patriots 25-22 last week.
Sunday October 17, 1:00pm EST
Chicago heads into this game with a 3-2 record, having won back-to-back games coming off of their bye week: at home against the Detroit Lions (24-14) and on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders (20-9).
While most of the attention in Chicago is on rookie quarterback Justin Fields, it’s the Bears defense that is really finding its groove. They’ve allowed 15.5 points per game at home this season (5th in NFL) and average a league-high 3.6 sacks per game and 10.1% sack percentage which also leads the league. What’s most impressive about that is that they’ve only blitzed on 15.7% of plays, the 4th-lowest rate in the league. That means that Khalil Mack and company are doing work and thriving, which could spell trouble for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have been shuffling around offensive linemen all season.
While the sample size is still small, Rodgers has uncharacteristically struggled under pressure this year, so keep that in mind, along with the fact that establishing the run might be difficult against this defense. The Bears have allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season, the 8th-best mark in the NFL.
With David Montgomery (knee) and Damien Williams (COVID-19 list) both out this week, Chicago’s offense will rely on rookie Khalil Herbert to lead the backfield. That means Fields will have to do more than he has been asked to do in any start. Packers star corner Jaire Alexander was placed on the IR and is out for the season and the team’s other starting corner Kevin King is banged up and potentially out as well. That could mean a career-best performance for Fields and a big day overall for Chicago’s passing offense.
At +195, Chicago is worth consideration despite the fact that just 4% of public bets are backing them.