3 Contrarian Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets To Consider
All of these most likely won't hit, but all three are realistic options
The following props can be found on DraftKings:
Contrarian: Patrick Mahomes to score a rushing or receiving touchdown (+400)
Heading into the matchup between Kansas City’s passing game and San Francisco’s pass rush, we generally know what Patrick Mahomes will be up against. The Niners led the NFL with a 14.7% Hurry Rate this season and came in second in Pressure Rate (28.7%), which takes into account Hurry Rate, Knockdowns and Sacks. Therefore, opposing quarterbacks have been pressured in over a quarter of their dropbacks, which has made life very tough on them. Mahomes has not only dominated through the air in his first two playoff starts: he’s been a bit of a dual-threat, rushing seven times for 53 yards against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round before taking eight carries for 53 yards and a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship. Assuming that he will be under duress, there’s a strong likelihood that he will have to use his legs to evade the opposition and make plays outside the pocket. At +400, this is a way to get a piece of the Chiefs offense with some solid upside, especially if you think Kansas City will find themselves around San Fran’s goal line multiple times.
More Contrarian: No turnovers by either team (+700)
So far in these playoffs, Mahomes has thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions and the Chiefs have had one turnover (a Tyreek Hill fumble against the Texans) and have only forced one. Meanwhile, the 49ers have had two of their own and have forced a whopping five through their two games. This prop is most likely contingent upon the Niners’ run-heavy Niners offense eating up clock, which would, in turn, force Patrick Mahomes to watch from the sidelines while the Chiefs lose the time of possession battle. Since Kansas City’s defense has been vulnerable to opposing rushing offenses all season long, that’s a realistic game script. Further, since the expectation is that Mahomes will be pressured often in this contest, there’s a possibility that Andy Reid and his coaching staff could be devising a number of shorter-yardage throws designed to get the ball out of his superstar’s hands quickly. If that’s the case, those would be higher-percentage throws with less of a likelihood of being intercepted. Fumbles, of course, are unpredictable, but there’s significant upside in this prop.
Ultra Contrarian: Arik Armstead (+12500) to win Super Bowl MVP
Armstead led the Niners in sacks during the regular season and is part of a fearsome defensive line that features Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford. While he usually plays end in San Francisco’s base package, he has moved all around and has been a dynamic part of what has been arguably the league’s top four-man rush. The Niners will undoubtedly want to make Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable and cannot allow speedsters like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman the time to get open downfield, so expect a very pressure-heavy gameplan, perhaps more than we’ve seen throughout the season. At these odds, Armstead is definitely worth considering, especially if you think the Niners will be able to consistently get pressure on Mahomes. Realistically, a low-scoring battle with multiple sacks and a forced fumble would be the desired stat line and game script required.