BetQL Community Insights: Super Bowl LIV

• Taking over 1100 poll responses into account, 52.2% of our users believe the Kansas City Chiefs are the best bet to win Super Bowl LIV over the San Francisco 49ers (as of early Sunday morning).

• Over 690 users weighed in on our Super Bowl MVP poll and labeled Patrick Mahomes (+110) as the best bet, with 51.2% of the votes.

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• So far, 68.9% of the 800-plus responses list the OVER (now at 54 points) as the best bet.

• With over 800 votes cast, the slight majority of our users (52.5%) believe that the game will be decided by one-possession. 

After an action-packed, storyline-filled battle of attrition that was the NFL regular season and playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off in Super Bowl LIV. Talking heads and pundits across the media landscape have offered their best predictions in the hopes of convincing listeners/readers/viewers that one team has an edge. Comment sections and social media platforms have fostered some logical (and mostly illogical) debates. Diehard fans and bandwagon posers have flooded consumable media in the hopes of proving that their team is indeed going to win. (Thanks a lot, Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless for pioneering this debate culture.) The BetQL Community is usually opinionated and with all the marbles on the line with the Lombardi Trophy up for grabs, thousands of poll responses have already flowed into our mobile app. Here are some of the more interesting mid-week findings as we approach the big game.

Note: Data presented below is as Sunday, February 2nd at 1:00am.

The Winning Team Will Be...

With over 1,100 poll responses, 52.2% of our users believe the Chiefs are the best bet to win the Super Bowl. Per our Public Betting Dashboard, just 42% of public moneyline bets have been wagered on Kansas City (-125) while 53% of public spread bets have been wagered on the Chiefs. Nonetheless, our users have shown a slight lean towards the Chiefs since the lines opened and there’s no reason to expect much of a shift in that regard. 

Further, over 690 users weighed in on our Super Bowl MVP poll and labeled Patrick Mahomes (+110) as the best bet, with 51.4% of the votes. For context, the second-most popular pick was Jimmy Garoppolo (+200) with just 17.2% of the votes. Therefore, the correlation between a Kansas City victory and Mahomes winning the MVP is clearly evident, especially since Travis Kelce (+1600, 4.8%) and Tyreek Hill (+1600, 4.5%) have essentially been afterthoughts. It seems like a virtual certainty that the MVP will come from the winning team, since only one player in history (Chuck Howley in 1971) won the honor after his team lost the game.

OVER or UNDER?

Over 800 users weighed in on the point total and have echoed the public and sharp response that drove the opening total up immediately. A whopping 68.9% of those responses think the over (now at 54 points) will hit, which is slightly higher than the 64% of public tickets that have been wagered on it. Keep in mind that the total opened at 51.5 points and gained three points pretty quickly based on a ton of early action on the over. Based on the presence of two elite offenses, the potential of a shootout exists and the presence of San Fran’s other-worldly defensive line and KC’s defensive playmakers hasn’t seemed to limit the appeal.

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How Will It Play Out?

Since the spread has opened and remained very tight, it’s clear that oddsmakers, public and sharp bettors have not been able to identify a major edge to capitalize on. Both of these teams have clear advantages (such as Mahomes’ presence as a superstar quarterback and the Niners’ insane rushing attack), but as a whole, they seem to be evenly-matched. With over 800 votes cast, the slight majority of our users (52.5%) believe that the game will be decided by one-possession: 28.8% predict a Chiefs win and 23.7% predict a 49ers win in that scenario. Meanwhile, just 16.8% of our community believes that either team will blow out the other: 9.1% predict a San Francisco win and 7.7% predict a KC victory in that scenario. The rest of the responses (30.7%) labeled a two-plus possession victory for either team as the most likely outcome.

To weigh in yourself (if you haven’t already), download or open the BetQL Mobile App and head over to the NFL Feed. While you’re there, check out the free $500 contest that we’re running!