BetQL Community Review: AFC Championship Game

Our community had much more confidence in Kansas City than the general public did

Entering the AFC Championship Game against the Tennessee Titans, there was a lot to like about the Kansas City Chiefs. After all, the home favorite entered the game with the following records: 13-4 overall, 13-4 against the spread, 6-3 (6-3 ATS) at home and 11-3 (11-3 ATS) as a favorite. Sharp bettors were all over Kansas City to win and cover, as KC attracted 67% of the total money wagered, per BetQL’s Sharp Picks dashboard. However, likely due to the fact that the Titans and Derrick Henry were getting a nauseating amount of love from the media all week leading up to kickoff (following their surprising upset wins over the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens), public bettors were swayed and ended up generally undecided on which team was the best bet against the spread. Via BetQL’s Public Betting dashboard, just 53% of the total tickets wagered were on the Chiefs, which highlights that point.

BetQL users were right in the middle of those two groups, as 61% of the 796 mobile users who gave a 👍 to the Chiefs on our “Games” tab (Community Likes) or answered our NFL feed poll showed a preference towards betting on Kansas City to cover. Therefore, our community clearly had more confidence in the Chiefs than the general public. 

As noted in our Top 3 Keys To Kansas City’s AFC Championship Win article, the Chiefs had to accomplish the following tasks (and they did):

3. Play sound defense from the opening snap. A week after allowing the Houston Texans to get out to a 24-0 lead, the Chiefs were able to sack Ryan Tannehill three times for a loss of 27 yards, allowed just 210 total passing yards and, most importantly, limited Derrick Henry to 69 yards and one touchdown on 19 carries (3.6 yards per rush). The Titans were only able to muster 85 team rushing yards and Tannehill was under pressure all game long. The Chiefs deflected five passes and made six total tackles in the backfield and controlled the game in the second half.

2. Get Tyreek Hill involved. Coming off of a three-catch, 41-yard performance in their Divisional Round win, it was imperative to get the Pro Bowl standout involved. After logging an 11-catch, 157-yard performance (with a touchdown) in the regular season, Hill made a quick impact in this contest and finished with five catches for 67 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he moved all over the field and drew double coverage, which opened things up for Sammy Watkins (seven receptions, 114 yards, touchdown), Damian Williams (five catches, 44 receiving yards, 17 carries, 45 rushing yards and a touchdown) and Mecole Hardman (who only caught one pass for eight yards, but drew a crucial pass interference penalty in the fourth quarter). 

1. Force the Titans to throw the ball. Right from the opening snap, it was obvious that the Chiefs were committed to altering Tennessee’s offensive game plan. Consider this: through their first two playoff games, the Titans called 77 rushing plays and just 32 passing plays. In this game, they threw the ball 32 times and ran it 23 times. That was, in part, due to the game script (a multiple-possession Chiefs lead) towards the end of the contest, but it was clear that Andy Reid’s team was not going to allow Henry to run all over them… and he didn’t. 

All in all, the majority of our users cashed in! Stay tuned for more analysis like this across every other sport!

About Community Likes

To view updated Community Likes data (and make your own picks), follow these steps ⬇️

Open the BetQL app. Head over to the "Games" tab on any sport. Click the corresponding 👍 next to the team/total you think is the best bet. Click the "My Picks" tab, select "Community" and there it is! You'll get a look at how your pick compares to the rest of our users (% and like total). Open up the app and take a look!

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