Cardinals And 49ers Poised For Week 9 Rematch

San Francisco escaped with a three-point win in their first matchup

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Larry Fitzgerald, Flickr

Cardinals (3-6) at 49ers (8-1)

SF -11.5, O/U 45

Sunday November 17th, 4:05pm EST

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  • The San Francisco 49ers (8-1) host the Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) in Week 11. 

  • The 49ers are double-digit favorites against the Cardinals and have gone 5-4 ATS while Arizona has gone an impressive 7-3 ATS. 

  • The over has gone 4-5 in Niners games and 6-4 in Cardinals games so far this season. 

  • San Francisco suffered their first loss of the season against the Seattle Seahawks in overtime on Monday Night Football last week while Arizona lost their second-straight game by a field goal, this time to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

  • These two teams played in Week 9 and the 49ers narrowly defeated the Cardinals in Arizona (28-25). 

  • BetQL’s NFL Model labels Arizona (+11.5) as the best bet ATS, but fully expects the Niners to win outright (their -600 moneyline is listed as the best bet). Further, over the 45 point total is listed as the best bet. Access every best bet on the Week 11 NFL slate!

Cardinals Offense vs. 49ers Defense

As expected, Kyler Murray carved up the Buccaneers’ NFL-worst pass defense last week, going 27-for-44 for 324 yards, three touchdowns and an interception while Christian Kirk had the best game of his young career, catching six passes for 138 yards and all three of the aforementioned scores. While the game script and game plan called for a pass-happy scheme, it’s important to point out that David Johnson carried the ball five times for just two yards (and doesn’t seem fully healthy) while Kenyan Drake took 10 carries for 35 yards. Murray was the team’s leading rusher with 38 yards on three carries. That’s just not going to cut it, especially in this matchup. 

San Francisco’s defense has been slightly below average against the run this season (107.8 yards allowed per game). However, they’ve allowed an NFL-best 143.8 passing yards per game (which is an incredible mark in today's pass-first league). Especially in San Fran, Murray most likely won’t be able to control the game through the air. In their first meeting, he went 17-for-24 passing for 241 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, but Drake broke out for 110 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in that contest and was able to singlehandedly support him on the ground. Assuming that Johnson continues to struggle, Drake should be relied on to make things happen on the ground. 

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49ers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

In their Week 9 meeting, Emmanuel Sanders went off for seven catches, 112 receiving yards and a touchdown while George Kittle caught six passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Niners, both of their statuses are uncertain for this contest, as they’re listed as questionable with a couple nagging ailments. Jimmy Garoppolo had the best statistical game of his 2019 season in the first meeting, as he went 28-for-37 for 317 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions en route to the victory. Matt Breida added 78 rushing yards on 15 carries while Tevin Coleman struggled, taking 12 carries for just 23 rushing yards. But, the offense as a whole was able to move the football down the field through the air with ease. 

Arizona ranks 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (126.0) and 29th in passing yards allowed per game (286.5). Therefore, San Fran’s offense should be able to click on all cylinders. The health of Sanders and Kittle could clearly play a factor in the outcome of this game, but Shanahan’s offense is such a well-oiled machine that losing both of them might not exactly be as devastating as it would appear to be. 

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Prediction 

BetQL’s NFL Model labels Arizona (+11.5) as the best bet ATS, but fully expects the Niners to win outright (their -600 moneyline is listed as the best bet). Further, over the 45 point total is listed as the best over/under bet. Access every best bet on the Week 11 NFL slate!