TB
Buccaneers
Sun 1/24, 8:05 PM
GB
Packers
GB -3.5 O/U 51
BUF
Bills
Sun 1/24, 11:40 PM
KC
Chiefs
KC -3 O/U 54

Can Packers Cover Second-Largest Spread Of Season Against The Bears?

Chicago (+8.5) receives their largest margin of the campaign

Elvis Kennedy, Flickr

Quick-Hitters

  • Oddsmakers have little faith in the Chicago Bears (+800) at this point and view them as heavy underdogs to win the NFC North, per BetMGM.

  • Currently, Aaron Rodgers (+550) is the third-favorite to win the MVP Award, per BetMGM. The Packers (+1200) are tied as fourth-favorites to win the Super Bowl, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Davante Adams (+500) is the third-favorite to finish the season with the most receiving yards, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite playing in just eight games, Adams is currently eighth in total receiving yards, but just 65 yards behind the leader.

  • The 8.5-points that the Bears receive against the Green Bay Packers is the widest margin in any of their contests this season.

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Futures, Game Trends

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers continue to thrive under second-year coach Matt LaFleur. They rank third in the league in points per game (30.8), turnovers per game (0.9), and average yards per drive (37.1). Rodgers has the second-most passing touchdowns (29) in the NFL, and he has the fourth-fewest interceptions (four) among qualified players. They're the fourth-best red zone offense, producing a touchdown 73.7 percent of the time, and they're fourth-best at converting on third down (47.9 percent).

Rodgers (+550) is the third-favorite to win the MVP Award, per BetMGM. The Packers (+1200) are tied as fourth-favorites to win the Super Bowl, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

 Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers in football once again. His dominance has helped Rodgers navigate Green Bay’s 7-3 path, despite key injuries on offense. Adams leads the league in receiving yards per game with 105.9, and he’s second in the NFL with 10 touchdown catches. He would easily sit atop all receiving categories if he hadn't missed a couple games midway through the season (ankle).

Adams (+500) is the third-favorite to finish the season with the most receiving yards, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite playing in just eight games, Adams is currently eighth in total receiving yards, but just 65 yards behind the leader (DeAndre Hopkins).

With Aaron Jones back in tow the past couple weeks after missing two games, the Packers go back to being a dual-threat offense. In fact, Green Bay has hit the over in two of their last three games with Jones back, producing a combined 89 points (or 29.6 points per contest). Something else that's noticeable is that the Packers have failed to cover in three of their last four games.

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Chicago's Tendencies

Luckily for the Packers, it’s been a cakewalk to guard the division lead from the offensively-inept Chicago Bears the last handful of weeks. After starting 5-1, bad things have happened in Chicago. Running back Tarik Cohen got hurt. Nick Foles began to struggle in the pocket. Head coach Matt Nagy seemed erratic and inconsistent with his offensive play-calling.

Oddsmakers have little faith in Chicago (+800) at this point and view them as heavy underdogs to win the NFC North, per BetMGM.

Just look at the Bears' offensive rankings. They rank 31st in points, total yards, first downs, yards per rushing attempt, and average yards per drive. They rank last in rushing yards (782), rushing touchdowns (just two all season), and third down conversion rate (31.1 percent). Despite attempting the third-most passes, they rank just 25th in passing yards.

The poor offensive showing has been a major factor in Chicago's over/under record (3-7). They've also hit the under in six of their last seven.

The defense is another story. Led by three-time All Pro Khalil Mack, the Bears' defense is the only thing they have to be proud about these days. Chicago has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the third-fewest rushing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest total points on the season. They're the top-ranked red-zone defense, surrendering a touchdown on just 44.1 percent of opponents’ red zone possessions. They're also the league’s best third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion percentage.

The efficiency on defense has kept the Bears in games, which is why they've managed to cover 5-of-9 times as underdogs. The 8.5-points that Chicago receives against Green Bay is the widest margin in any of their contests.

Summing It All Up

Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense are absolutely electric, but their defense stinks. Chicago has one of the best defensive units in the game, but their offense has been utterly abysmal and Nagy hasn’t even named a starter for this contest.

It’s hard to envision the Packers struggling too mightily in this one. The few games Green Bay has lost has been due to an awful rushing defense, and Chicago has the worst running game in the NFL. In the three games the Packers have lost, their opponents have put up 38, 28, and 34 points, respectively. The Bears have failed to eclipse 23 points in any of their last seven games, and they produced 17 or fewer points in three of their last four.

The big question is, can Green Bay cover a large 8.5-point spread? They've struggled to do so of late and the 8.5-point spread is the second-largest spread they've had to cover this season.

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