Overachieving Bills, Steelers Will Square Off In Important Sunday Night Clash

One team will gain an edge in the AFC playoff picture with a win

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Bills (9-4) at Steelers (8-5)

PIT -1, O/U 37, Sunday 12/15/19, 8:20pm EST

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  • The Buffalo Bills (9-4) travel slightly south to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) on the Week 15 edition of Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are listed as one-point home favorites and the over/under is listed at 37 points in what’s expected to be a low-scoring affair. 

  • The Bills have gone 8-4-1 ATS and are coming off a 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve won four of their last six games outright and have gone 5-1 on the road (5-0-1 ATS). 

  • The Steelers are riding a three-game winning streak and have been surging, winning seven of their last eight contests. Pittsburgh has gone 7-4-2 ATS, including 4-2-1 ATS at home (5-2 overall). They’ve won and covered three-straight home contests and are coming off a 23-17 road win over the Arizona Cardinals.

  • The over has gone 3-10 in Buffalo’s games and 3-10 in Pittsburgh’s games this season.

  • The Bills enter Sunday as the 5th seed in the AFC playoff picture, just one game behind the New England Patriots (10-3) in the AFC East. The Steelers enter Sunday in the 6th and final spot, but own the same record as the Tennessee Titans (8-5), who are occupying the 7th spot outside the bubble. 

  • BetQL’s NFL Model lists a best bet against the spread, on the moneyline and on the total for this game. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Bills

Before the season, if someone claimed that the Bills would be one game back from the New England Patriots in the AFC East standings, you would have laughed in their face. However, that’s exactly the case at the moment. Although New England holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, a Bills win and Patriots loss this week would create a tie in the divisional standings (with another meeting between Buffalo and New England coming). Led by Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown offensively and supported by an elite defense (allowing 16.3 points per game - 2nd in the NFL), the Bills have been among the best road teams in the league, as indicated by their 5-1 SU record away from Buffalo (5-0-1 ATS). They even gave Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens a run for their money last week, losing 24-17 (in Buffalo). The Bills currently hold the 5th spot in the AFC playoff picture, but the Tennessee Titans (8-5) are in the 7th spot and are looming due to their recent surge. Therefore, a win in this contest would provide the Bills with a cushion as far as earning a playoff spot is concerned. 

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Steelers

The Steelers are riding a three-game winning streak and have been surging, winning seven of their last eight contests. Further, they’ve gone 4-2-1 ATS at home (5-2 overall) and have won and covered three-straight games in Pittsburgh, all without Ben Roethlisberger (injury), Le’Veon Bell (on the New York Jets) and Antonio Brown (out of the league) involved. The turnaround has been astounding and Mike Tomlin’s coaching job must be commended. Pittsburgh has always performed well in primetime games and in their last 92 games as a home favorite, the Steelers have gone 71-21 SU. That certainly bodes well for their chances in this contest. 

While quarterback Duck Hodges and the Steelers offense doesn’t pose much of a consistent threat at this point, Pittsburgh’s defense has also morphed into an elite unit. Led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, who the Steelers traded for during the season, the team has generated an NFL-best 33 turnovers (18 interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries). They also lead the NFL in sacks (48) and have allowed 17.8 points per contest (6th). It’s easy to assume that this will be a low-scoring affair due to the elite nature of both defenses.

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Prediction

BetQL’s NFL Model lists a best bet against the spread, on the moneyline and on the total for this game. Find out what they are!