BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's Thursday Night Football matchup.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every college football game!
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BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's Thursday Night Football matchup.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every college football game!
Start your free trial today! See our model’s best bets for this game below.
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There are a number of trends to be aware of for this matchup. These are two of the best!
Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have gone 41-16 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. Since New England allowed 33 in their loss to the Vikings on Thanksgiving night, this trend is active.
Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have gone 9-1 ATS after a win by 3 or fewer points. They just beat the Lions by 3 points on Thanksgiving, so this elite trend is also active.
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We simulated this game 10,000 times and these were two of the most important aspects of the game that our model identified:
Patriots: establish the run with Rhamondre Stevenson. In New England wins, he had an average of 77.0 rushing yards, but in losses, he had just 47.0.
Bills: win the turnover battle. Buffalo committed fewer turnovers than the Patriots 68% of the time in sims and when they did, they won 78% of the time.
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Below, see our team grades and final score projection for this game.