The Buffalo Bills are favored to win the AFC East at -200, but Ken Barkley likes some pretty interesting bets when it comes to the Bills, as he discussed in the You Better You Bet clip above.
Barkley explained he likes the Bills to go under their win total this season and to even miss the playoffs, even though that doesn't mean he'll bet against them from game to game this season.
"To miss the playoffs at 4-to-1 seemed really appealing and still seems really appealing," Barkley said, but might still bet on the Bills to win week to week. "The methodology to get to both bets is completely different. I happen to like the Bills in this game because of what the market price is, or may happen to like the Bills depending on what the market price is. But that's not a guarantee I'm going to like the Bills in any game the rest of the season. ... The season-long bets, that's where I will actually use what I think about teams to bet season."
These bets are certainly head-turning ones from Barkley. And the BetQL Model has some thoughts on this. The Model is projecting the Bills have an 89-percent chance of making the playoffs, a 76-percent chance to win the AFC East and to win 11.6 games. The over/under on their win total is set at a lofty 11.5.
If you too want to be on the Bills to miss the playoffs, you can get the best odds for that at FanDuel at +500. As for their win total at FanDuel, you can get them to go under their 11.5 win total at -125 or get in on the over at +105.
Let's say the Bills do miss the playoffs, what happens then? It would be fairly shocking if this happens, but at FanDuel the Dolphins are next behind the Bills to win the AFC East at +450, followed by the Patriots at +500 and the Jets at +2400. If the Dolphins excel this season or if the Bills even struggle a bit, the division could be theirs for the taking.
The Bills are also favored at +280 to win the AFC's No. 1 seed, with the Chiefs behind them at +650, followed by the Broncos +750 and Chargers at +950. If you also think the Bills will struggle and give up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, these teams have to look like great values entering Week 1.