5-Star Model Review: NFL Week 1

BetQL dominated five-star bets on Sunday; here's a look at three winners

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  • Overall, BetQL's NFL Model went 8-2 (80%) on ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bets for Sunday's main slate.

  • Below, we'll take a look back on Steelers (+6.5) against the Bills, Panthers (-185 moneyline) versus the Jets and Lions-49ers over 46 points, all of which hit.

Best Spread Bet: Steelers +6.5 Points at Bills

BetQL Projection: Steelers +4.5 Points (Bills 26, Steelers 21.5)

Actual Score: Steelers 23, Bills 16

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This was arguably the upset of the week, as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers rallied to score 17 points in the fourth quarter and stun the Bills on their home turf. BetQL's model listed the Steelers (+6.5) as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet and projected them to lose by 4.5 points, so the outright win was not an expected result.

Heading into this game, the model had gone 12-6 (66.7%) on spread bets in Roethlisberger’s starts ($489 total return). Further, the model had gone 107-72 (59.8%) across all Steelers bets all-time ($962 total return).

Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers had gone 36-22 ATS as an underdog, and the model took that into account.

Oddly enough, the Bills out-gained the Steelers in passing yards (254 to 177) and rushing yards (117 to 75), yet couldn't earn the victory. Pittsburgh's defense and special teams got the job done and made this bet a winner, even if it was in jeopardy for the first three quarters.

Win $200 if the NFL Team you Bet Scores a TD
Bet an NFL teams moneyline, your bet can win or lose and and still get $200 FREE as long as the team you bet on scores a TD.
Win $200 if the NFL Team you Bet Scores a TD
Bet an NFL teams moneyline, your bet can win or lose and and still get $200 FREE as long as the team you bet on scores a TD.

Best Moneyline Bet: Panthers -185

BetQL Projection: Panthers -248 (Panthers 25, Jets 20)

Actual Score: Panthers 19, Jets 14

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J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets. If you're a Jets fan, you probably want to stay off Twitter for a bit.

BetQL listed the Panthers (-185) as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value and projected them at -248.

The model also projected New York to lose by five points and that's exactly what happened. Panthers superstar Christian McCaffrey didn't score a touchdown, but had a huge day nonetheless by racking up 98 yards on 21 carries and an additional 89 on nine receptions.

Sam Darnold and the Panthers got off to a 16-0 halftime lead and led 19-8 before Zach Wilson hit Corey Davis for an eight-yard touchdown to close the gap to one possession. However, Carolina was clearly the superior team and earned a hard-nosed win in front of their home fans.

Best O/U Bet: Over 46 Points

BetQL Projection: 49 Points (49ers 29, Lions 20)

Actual Score: 49ers 41, Lions 33

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BetQL’s model listed over 46 points as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet. The model projected 49 total points to be scored and had gone 19-10 (65.5%) on 49ers O/U bets for a total return of $727. Further, the model had gone 13-8 (61.9%) on O/U bets in Jimmy Garoppolo’s starts and 19-11 (63.3%) on O/U bets in Jared Goff’s starts heading into this opening-day battle.

As the data suggested, 46 points was simply too conservative.

Boy, was the model correct.

The Niners got out to a huge 31-10 lead by halftime and the over hit when Jimmy Garoppolo connected with Deebo Samuel for a 79-yard touchdown pass to make the score 38-10 midway through the third quarter.

The game script led Lions quarterback Jared Goff to sling the ball all game, and he ended up going 38-57 for 338 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. The Lions put up 16 meaningless points in the fourth quarter to make this seem closer than it actually was, but the shootout was a pleasant sight!

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