5 NFL Win Totals To Bet On Right Now
Based on some major recent transactions, let's target these win totals
Although American sports consumers have felt the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the NFL has been its typical content machine, churning out storyline after storyline as the league officially begins a new season. Although the current state of affairs and status of the country creates general confusion regarding when and if the upcoming 2020 campaign will start as scheduled, the business-first nature of the league creates the perception that the 16-game regular season will take place. Based on some major recent transactions, the following win total bets make a whole lot of sense, as featured on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Patriots: UNDER 9.5 wins (+100)
Tom Brady’s departure from New England was the absolute shock of the offseason. For the first time in two decades, the Patriots have a question mark at QB1. Will Brady’s 2019 backup Jarrett Stidham take over control of the offense? Will Bill Belichick opt to sign a veteran free agent like Andy Dalton? What about a trade for Cam Newton? Although New England’s offense evolved into a run-first entity towards the finale of Brady’s tenure and the Patriots defense is coming off of an historic year, the quarterback position usually makes or breaks a team’s success. Although Brady’s arm strength clearly declined late in his career, his firm grasp on the offensive play-calling and his Hall of Fame level decision-making will most likely be sorely missed.
Buffalo Bills: OVER 8.5 wins (-110)
In recent years, Buffalo’s Super Bowl hopes have been limited by a few factors: the presence of Brady and the Patriots, subpar offenses in relation to their above-average defenses and Josh Allen’s turnover issues. With Brady now out of Foxborough and the main pieces of their defenses returning, Buffalo is in a perfect spot to build off of career campaigns from wideouts John Brown and Cole Beasley now that they traded for new No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs. While Allen certainly developed throwing short and intermediate passes since entering the NFL, he struggled to throw the ball downfield last season. Enter Diggs, who not only has one of the most historically-improbable catches in NFL playoff history, but who is also a big-play threat on every snap. He should fit in perfectly and immediately transform Buffalo’s offense from a general question mark to a consistent threat, especially if Diggs’ vertical route-running opens up running lanes for both Allen and sophomore running back Devin Singletary, who should also build off of an impressive rookie campaign. With sudden question marks in New England and typically in New York and Miami, this division suddenly looks like it’s Buffalo’s to lose.
Tennessee Titans: OVER 8.5 wins (-110)
After rewarding Ryan Tannehill with a massive extension and giving Derrick Henry the franchise tag, the Titans are looking to run back what was a surprisingly-impressive 2019 campaign that took them all the way to the AFC Championship Game. Their ground-and-pound offensive style was complemented well by their elite defense and they’ll look to build off of their success. Free agent Vic Beasley also just signed with them, which should give them another talented pass-rusher. As seen last year, when Henry and Tennessee’s offensive line are clicking, virtually no one can stop them, even if they crowd the box or attempt to plug the gaps. In fact, teams have spent time trying to build powerful defensive lines specifically to limit Henry, as shown by what the Ravens have done:
Arizona Cardinals: OVER 7 wins (-110)
In what might go down as the worst trade in the history of the NFL (from the Texans’ perspective), the Cardinals acquired All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick for running back David Johnson, a second-round 2020 pick and a fourth-round 2021 pick. All of a sudden, second-year quarterback Kyler Murray and Air Raid coach Kliff Kingsbury are armed with arguably the best receiver in the NFL to go along with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald at the position. Further, Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds will look to build off of their late-season success at the running back position. All of a sudden, Arizona’s offense has the potential to emerge as one of the league’s most prolific, especially if they decide to bolster their offensive line in the upcoming draft. Further, Arizona added defensive tackle Jordan Phillips in free agency and will feature Chandler Jones, who recorded 19 sacks last season, on the defensive end. If Kingsbury can get his team to execute offensively, there’s a lot of potential to capitalize on here.
Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 9.0 wins (-110)
Kirk Cousins signed a massive contract extension (he “liked that”), but then watched his go-to wideout get traded (he didn’t “like that”). Although the Vikings landed four draft picks in return for the receiver, they also lost cornerback Trae Waynes in free agency. Dalvin Cook’s emergence took Minnesota’s offense to new heights last year, but his late-season injury was a reminder of how stale the Vikings can look without his dynamic presence. As seen before, Adam Thielen can effectively handle double-digit targets, but he has durability issues as well. Right now, the receivers behind Thielen include Bisi Johnson, Chad Beebe, Laquon Treadwell, Alexander Hollins, Dillon Mitchell and Bralon Addison. They’ll most likely be targeting this position in free agency and in the draft, but there are some real question marks when it comes to feeling confident about this being a 10-win team at the moment.
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