49ers, Saints In Search Of A Statement Win With NFC Playoff Positioning At Stake

49ers (10-2) at Saints (10-2)

NO -2.5, O/U 44.5, Sunday December 8th, 1:00pm EST

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• The San Francisco 49ers (10-2) travel to take on the New Orleans Saints (10-2) in Week 14.

• Both of San Francisco’s losses have come by exactly three points and the most recent one was last week against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (20-17). Overall, the Niners have gone 7-4 ATS, 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road, and the over has gone 5-7 in their games. 

• New Orleans is coming off a 26-18 road win over the Atlanta Falcons and has gone 8-4 ATS overall. The Saints have gone 5-1 SU at home, but have gone 3-3 ATS and have failed to cover in both of their most recent contests at the Superdome (against the Carolina Panthers and Falcons). The over has gone 6-6 overall in New Orleans’ games.

• The Saints have amazingly already clinched the AFC South title and hold the first spot in the NFC playoff picture. Due to the Seattle Seahawks’ Week 13 victory, the 49ers dropped down to the fifth spot in the NFC playoff picture (from the second spot). 

• The Saints are listed as 2.5-point favorites and the over/under is listed at 44.5 points. BetQL’s NFL Model lists a best bet against the spread, on the moneyline and on the total in this matchup. Keep reading to check out our preview and prediction.

49ers

All-in-all, the 49ers arguably have the NFL’s most dangerous offense behind the Ravens. Averaging 29.1 points per game (which ranks 2nd behind Baltimore), the Niners have outscored their opponents by 13.8 points per game this season (3rd behind the Ravens and Patriots), which is a testament to how dominant they've been on both sides of the ball. San Francisco has accomplished their stellar offensive team stats with a run-heavy approach, as indicated by their 51.1 percent rushing percentage (2nd-highest behind Baltimore). On the road, they’ve rushed the ball 55.3 percent of the time, also the 2nd-highest mark. With Matt Breida returning from injury, the Niners will now have three healthy running backs: Brieda, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. The trio has led the team to 148.0 rushing yards per game, also the 2nd-best mark in the league and Kyle Shanahan’s offense has the weekly luxury of relying on the hot-hand. While New Orleans’ rush defense ranks 3rd in the NFL (allowing just 88.6 yards on the ground per game), the Niners have essentially been matchup-proof. 

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Jimmy Garoppolo has had a wide range of performances this season, from a 424-yard outing against the Arizona Cardinals back in Week 11 to a 165-yard showing last week against the Ravens. Although the weather played a role in that last week, he could be leaned on in this contest, as New Orleans’ pass defense ranks 17th (234.9 yards allowed per game through the air). Nonetheless, the Niners offense poses numerous risks that opposing defenses need to pay attention to. However, so does their defense… 

Saints 

Drew Brees and company are going to have their hands full in this contest. The 49ers defense ranks 1st in the NFL, allowing just 134.2 passing yards per game. In today’s pass-centric NFL, that’s absolutely absurd. Their 11.3% sack rate is also tops in the league (no other team has a double-digit sack rate), which spells trouble for Brees, who will presumably not have a very clean pocket throughout this contest unless his offensive line makes a major statement. New Orleans’ offense is concentrated heavily; Brees, wideout Michael Thomas and running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray do most of the heavy lifting. There’s no reason why the Saints should deviate from that plan in this contest and we should fully expect Thomas to use his ability to get quick separation and Kamara to use his ability to make an impact from check-downs and screen passes as a way to alleviate any unmanageable pressure on Brees. Since the 49ers have consistently gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a four-man rush, it will be tough for the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback to produce up to his normal standard of play.

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There are a couple trends working against the Saints in this matchup to consider. In their last eight games against good passing defenses (allowing 5.7 or less passing yards per attempt) in the second half of the season, the Saints have gone just 1-7 SU. Further, in their last 10 games against good defensive teams (who give up 17 or less points per game) in the second half of the season, the Saints have gone 2-8 SU. 

However, there are a few reasons to like the Saints in this matchup as well. In their last 25 games against dominant ball control teams (who possess the ball for an average of 32-plus minutes and average 21-plus first downs per game), the Saints have gone 21-4 ATS and 23-2 SU. In their last 55 games against good offensive teams (who score 24 or more points per game), the Saints are 41-14 ATS. Finally, in their last 26 games against very good offensive teams (who average 27 or more points per game), New Orleans is 21-5 ATS.

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Since both teams have been dominant on both sides of the ball, this should be a gritty battle that should go down to the wire. What side will you be on?

Prediction 

The Saints are listed as 2.5-point favorites and the over/under is listed at 44.5 points. BetQL’s NFL Model lists a best bet against the spread, on the moneyline and on the total in this matchup. Find out what they are!