Top 3 Keys To AFC Championship Betting Success: Titans

Here's what Tennessee needs to do against the Kansas City Chiefs

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Titans at Chiefs

Sunday 1/19/20, 3:05pm EST

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  • The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in the AFC Championship Game

  • The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the over/under opened at 52 points. 

  • The Titans enter this game with the following records: 11-7 overall, 10-7-1 against the spread, 7-3 (7-3 ATS) on the road and 5-3 (5-3 ATS) as an underdog. 

  • These two teams squared off in Tennessee back on November 10th and the Titans earned a 35-32 victory. 

  • The Titans are coming off of two improbable road playoff wins: 20-13 against the New England Patriots in Foxborough and then 28-12 against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.

  • Heading into Friday, the Titans are listed as seven-point underdogs. Here are their top three keys to not only beating the spread, but winning the game outright to advance to the Super Bowl. 

3. Embrace The Underdog Status

If the Titans somehow win this game outright, they’d arguably complete the most improbable Super Bowl run in NFL history. Not only did they go into Foxborough to beat the Patriots in the Wild Card Round, but they then went into Baltimore to manhandle future MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in the Divisional Round. Since it’s impossible to measure the toughness and tenacity in which the team has played under head coach Mike Vrabel, it’s clear that this team has been unfazed by two extremely unwelcoming settings. 

2. Continue To Ride Henry

Through the first two playoff games, it’s crystal-clear what the Titans want to do when they have the ball: feed Derrick Henry. So far, so good. Henry took 30 carries for 195 yards against the Ravens and Tennessee rushed the ball 37 times compared to just 15 pass plays in that contest. Against the Patriots, Henry took 34 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown while Tennessee ran the ball 40 times and threw just 16 passes. Although the Chiefs allowed just 44 yards on 13 carries to Houston’s lead back Carlos Hyde last week, the game script required a pass-first, shootout mentality and the Texans threw 52 times compared to just 21 rush attempts. During the regular season, the Chiefs defense allowed 4.9 yards per rushing attempt (29th out of 32 teams) and was very susceptible to the run. That creates a positive outlook for Henry and Tennessee’s rushing attack, as does the fact that he carried the ball 23 times for 188 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting back on November 10th (a 35-32 Titans win). If he is able to find success once again, the Titans will likely be able to keep this game close and put the Chiefs on upset alert. 

1. Find A Way To Limit Mahomes

In their regular-season meeting, Mahomes went 36-for-50 for 446 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. To make matters scarier, it was Mahomes’ first game back from a knee injury, too. With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins and Damien Williams, among others, willing and able to produce in the passing game, Tennessee’s defense must find a way to limit chunk plays. The Titans defense has been dominant in recent weeks, allowing 14 points to the Texans in Week 17, 13 to the Patriots and then just 12 against the historically-great Ravens offense last week. They’ll have to step up their play even more this week and the below-freezing temperatures will create brutal conditions to deal with the reigning MVP. If they’re able to contain his production, the Titans have not only a great chance to win against the spread, but to shock the World and move onto the Super Bowl. 

Find out which team our model lists as the best bet and track line movement leading up to kickoff!