Top 3 Keys To AFC Championship Betting Success: Chiefs

Titans at Chiefs

Sunday 1/19/20, 3:05pm EST

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• The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in the AFC Championship Game. 

• The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the over/under opened at 52 points. 

• The Chiefs enter this game with the following records: 13-4 overall, 13-4 against the spread, 6-3 (6-3 ATS) on the road and 11-3 (11-3 ATS) as a favorite. 

• These two teams squared off in Tennessee back on November 10th and the Titans earned a 35-32 victory. 

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• The Chiefs had a first-round bye and despite getting off to a 24-0 deficit to the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, they rallied back and ended up winning 51-31. 

• Track these odds all week until kickoff using BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard!

• Heading into Friday, the Chiefs are listed as seven-point home favorites. Here are their three keys to not only winning the game outright and advancing to the Super Bowl, but also covering the spread.

3. Play Sound Defense From The Opening Snap

As seen last week, Kansas City’s defense has a tendency to be inconsistent. That’s how Houston built their initial 24-0 lead. Which unit will show up: the one that allowed a total of 22 points in Weeks 14-16 to the Patriots, Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears combined, or the one from last week? We know what to expect out of Mahomes and the offense, but Kansas City’s defense will likely make or break their chances to win (and cover the spread). As you'll see below, they'll be tasked with a nightmarish matchup against arguably the best running back in the NFL.

2. Get Tyreek Hill Involved

Last week, Kansas City amazingly erased a 24-0 deficit and scored 51 points without major production from Hill (three catches for 41 yards). Think about how scary that is! In their regular-season meeting, Hill went off for 157 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches and was a nuisance for Tennessee’s secondary. As seen repeatedly over the course of his career, Hill has the initial burst and breakaway speed necessary to take any touch to the house. Against a solid Titans defense that has surrendered just 25 points total to the Patriots and Ravens on the road, points most likely won’t be easy to create, thus making Hill’s game-breaking speed even more important. 

1. Force The Titans To Throw The Ball

If you’ve watched the Titans play, you already know that they’re going to try to establish the run behind their bruising offensive line. Through the first two playoff games, the game plan has worked wonderfully. Derrick Henry took 30 carries for 195 yards against the Ravens and Tennessee rushed the ball 37 times compared to just 15 pass plays in that contest. Previously, against the Patriots, Henry took 34 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown while Tennessee ran the ball 40 times and threw just 16 passes. Through two games, the Titans have called 77 rushing plays and a total of 32 passes (one was a trick-play that Tannehill didn’t throw). Getting off to a quick lead would seemingly force the ball away from Henry, especially if the Titans are down multiple possessions in catch-up mode. Completely selling out against the run and stacking the box could also be a viable strategy in a closer game. If Kansas City expects to move on to the Super Bowl, they can’t allow Henry to repeat his 23-carry, 188-yard, two-touchdown regular-season performance that resulted in a 35-32 Titans win. 

Find out which team our model lists as the best bet and track line movement leading up to kickoff!