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10-7
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9-8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Los Angeles Rams vsTampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a solid favorite with a 64% chance to beat the Los Angeles Rams. Leonard Fournette is projected for 69 rushing yards and a 51% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 36% of simulations where Los Angeles Rams wins, Jared Goff averages 1.85 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.36 TDs to 0.97 interceptions. Darrell Henderson Jr. averages 35 rushing yards and 0.31 rushing TDs when Los Angeles Rams wins and 21 yards and 0.13 TDs in losses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers has a 51% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 81% of the time.

Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) host the Los Angeles Rams (6-3) in an NFC showdown at Raymond James Stadium on Monday Night Football. The Bucs are -4 favorites (-210 ML), and the over/under has been set at 48.5.

Both these teams have suffered from multiple personalities this season. The Bucs have manhandled multiple winning teams—including the Packers, Panthers, and Raiders—but they got outscored 20-19 by the offensively-inept Bears in Week 5, and swept by the Saints by a combined score of 72-26. Meanwhile, the Rams have taken care of business most of the season—coming within four points in Buffalo to a 5-0 start—yet they have faltered against the injury-ravaged 49ers and young-upstart Dolphins.

Who will prevail in this important NFC clash of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde teams? Let’s dive in with a full game outlook and betting predictions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

The Buccaneers have a fantastic defense under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, a decent one-two backfield punch of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, and a receiving arsenal with as many weapons as any team in football. Thus, this football team can win over anyone as long as three-time MVP and first-year Buc Tom Brady plays winning football.

Brady has looked horrendous in both of Tampa’s meetings with fellow QB legend Drew Brees and the division-rival Saints. And he literally forgot how many downs he had at the end of a tough 20-19 loss to the offensively-challenged Bears in Week 5, resulting in a game-icing turnover on downs. He was the central factor of the Bucs’ three losses, just as he has been the main catalyst in their seven wins.

That may seem overstated, or it may appear to be an oversimplification. But the numbers back it up. In Tampa’s three losses, Brady combined to throw three total touchdowns and five interceptions, while averaging 233.6 passing yards and 68.5 QB rating. In its seven wins, he has thrown 20 touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging 291.1 passing yards and a 110.7 QB rating.

Not surprisingly, super-talented big man Mike Evans leads the Buccaneers’ receivers in catches (40), yards (514), and touchdowns (eight). When Chris Godwin (finger) has seen the field, he has caught 82.9 percent of his 41 targets for 412 yards and two scores. Scotty Miller has played the part of Brady’s trusty slot-man. And tight end Rob Gronkowski—Brady’s longtime pal and teammate during three of Brady’s six Super Bowl wins—has finally shaken the retirement rust off, scoring four TDs in Tampa’s last five games. And Antonio Brown started to look more comfortable with the offense last week, with Brady connecting with him for seven catches and 69 total yards. Tampa ranks fifth in passing touchdowns (23), sixth in points (296), and ninth in passing yards (2,646, or 264.6 per game).

As for the running game, which seems interchangeable based on coach Bruce Arians’ mood, Ronald Jones might have finally supplanted Leonard Fournette as the Bucs’ bell-cow back. The third-year USC product rushed for 192 yards in Tampa’s dominant 46-23 win over Carolina last week, highlighted by a 98-yard run-away TD (the longest run in the NFL this season). Jones has 730 rushing yards and five TDs, while Fournette has 396 scrimmage yards as the pass-catcher and change-of-pace back (he has caught 80 percent of Brady’s looks).

When Brady and his boys get out to a lead, his defense generally does its job to preserve it. The Buccaneers rank first in rushing yards allowed (1,039, 103.9 per game) and third in total yards allowed (3,003, 300.3 per game). They have the second-most takeaways in the league with 17 (12 picks and five fumble recoveries)

They are what you might call plentiful at all three levels. Edge rushers Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston have combined for 13.5 sacks and 36 QB hits. Elite linebackers Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David have combined for 201 tackles and 11.5 sacks. And Tampa’s young but outstanding secondary features breakout rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. and third-year stud Carlton Davis, the latter of which leads the NFC in interceptions (four) and passes defensed (14).

Los Angeles Rams Preview

The Los Angeles Rams know a little something about having a strong defense. LA has surrendered the second-fewest points (168), the second-fewest total yards (2,668), and the third-fewest first downs (167). They rank first in opposing passing touchdowns (nine) and average points allowed per defensive possession (1.51). They sit in the top ten in both passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed.

Perennial All-Pro Aaron Donald, likely a top contender for Defensive Player of the Year once again, has unsurprisingly led the charge with an NFC-leading nine sacks. LA has a total of 31 QB take-downs, just one behind Tampa Bay. Micah Kiser serves as the tackle-gobbler of the linebacking unit. And safeties John Johnson and Taylor Rapp, as well as the terrific trio of cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, and Darious Williams (the latter of which has four picks) comprise the Rams’ elite secondary.

Just like the Buccaneers, the Rams can only go as far as their quarterback takes them. Jared Goff has had a better season than his Super Bowl-losing hangover season last year, but he’s nowhere near where coach Sean McVay needs him to be. With Darrell Henderson Jr. now leading the backfield Todd Gurley used to dominate, and Brandin Cooks making plays in Houston now, it’s on Goff to drive this offense.

He has a healthy group of receiving options to work with, and Henderson and Malcolm Brown have helped LA score 14 rushing TDs (tied for second in the NFL). But Goff has been mediocre at best in the red zone. The Rams only score a touchdown 62.9 percent of the time they reach their opponents’ 20-yard line, ranking 16th in the league.

Goff needs to trust his veteran receivers more. Cooper Kupp, who leads LA with 53 catches and 577 receptions, only has two touchdowns. Robert Woods, who has caught 70 percent of his passes and scored four times, only has 60 targets in nine starts. Josh Reynolds and rookie Van Jefferson flash at times, and then disappear again. Tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett look like dominant red-zone threats in one game, then fade into obscurity the next.

LA has constructed a roster around Goff that can easily go all the way if he puts the pieces together and confidently executes. That’s more than apparent given the fact that the Rams upset the division-leading Seahawks 23-16 last week and dominated the Bears 24-10 two games prior. But then there’s the November 1 hiccup in Miami, and the mid-October disaster in San Francisco against an injury-plagued 49ers team. 

Great teams with great quarterbacks don’t suffer such terrible hiccups. So just like in Tampa, the question posed by many Rams fans must be “Is my QB capable of being great enough for a long enough stretch to win my team a Super Bowl?”

Full Game Prediction

Pieces don’t win ball games, execution does. It sounds like a football-inspired fortune cookie, but it’s true seven days a week and twice on Sunday. Tampa Bay has shown us more this season than the Rams have, especially at home, while LA has faltered at times on the road. We like the Rams to stay in the game right until the end, covering the +4, but we’re going with the Buccaneers at home on the moneyline. Pound the under, too—these are two of the stingiest defensive units in the league, so there’s no way this one flirts with 50 total points. Give us Tampa Bay by a game-winning Ryan Succup field goal, 25-23.

Sloan Piva
Prediction Written by
Sloan Piva

Sloan is an avid sports bettor and sportswriter, with decades of experience in the industries of gambling and journalism. His specialties include football, basketball, baseball, and anything related to fantasy sports. Sloan’s a native New Englander, so his favorite teams are the Patriots, Celtics, Red Sox, and Boston College Eagles, but he always bets with his head and not his heart. He constantly has his finger on the pulse of the sports world, and never misses a big game. When he’s not watching or writing about sports, Sloan can be found spending time with his wife Chrissy and daughter Ellie, probably eating somewhere near the ocean. Follow Sloan for his picks, previews, and predictions, and start cashing more bets today!

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