Cleveland Browns
11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Cleveland Browns vsPittsburgh Steelers Prediction

Expect a close game with the Cleveland Browns winning 44% of simulations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers 56% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Cleveland Browns commit fewer turnovers in 57% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers wins 79% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Kareem Hunt is averaging 64 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 271 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 61%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

With a little help from a bye week and a favorable schedule, the Steelers are still undefeated heading into the third week of October. It’s important to keep in mind that Pittsburgh has defeated four teams that have combined for three wins this season. Nevertheless, the Steelers have proven that they can win in different ways, and so they’ll be ready for their first big challenge of the season. Plus, even with a 4-0 record, the Steelers only lead the Ravens and Browns by half a game in the standings, so this is a must-win if Pittsburgh wants to stay in first place.

It’s clear that the Steelers don’t have the young Ben Roethlisberger playing quarterback, but the 38-year-old version of the future Hall of Famer is still good enough to win games. Roethlisberger has thrown 10 touchdown passes and just one interception through the first four games of the season. The quality of Pittsburgh’s receivers remains in question, which is why Roethlisberger isn’t posting eye-popping numbers. But things appear to be trending upward after a four-touchdown performance from rookie Chase Claypool last week. If he can provide the Steelers with a reliable complement to JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Pittsburgh offense has a chance to go places. Keep in mind that James Conner has rushed for over 100 yards twice in the last three games, so the Steelers are getting something from their running game most weeks.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh defense has been the main attraction in the Steel City thus far. To be fair, the Steelers haven’t faced any winning teams and made some mistakes against the Eagles last week. But with 20 sacks and seven turnovers forced in four games, Mike Tomlin has to be pleased with how his team is playing on that side of the ball. As long as the Steelers remain healthy, there is no discernible weakness on that side of the ball, which means it won’t be up to Roethlisberger and the offense to carry the team most weeks.

Cleveland Browns Preview

The Browns have become living proof that first impressions can be deceiving. After losing 38-6 to the Ravens in Week 1, Cleveland has rattled off four straight victories. While it’s easy to dismiss wins over Cincinnati and Washington, the Browns have looked the part of a contender during gate last two weeks, beating both the Cowboys and Colts. By getting the Browns to 4-1, first-year coach Kevin Stefanski has done something that hasn’t been done in Cleveland since 1994. With a fifth straight win this week, the Browns can move into at least a tie for first place in the AFC North.

The key for Stefanski and the Cleveland offense thus far has been pushing Baker Mayfield into a supporting role The Browns rank 29th in the NFL in passing yards, which has become a winning formula. Before Nick Chubb got hurt in Week 4, he and Kareem Hunt were forming a dynamic backfield tandem. But Hunt with D’Ernest Johnson can still be a good combination. The less they can rely on the unpredictable Mayfield, the better off the Browns will be. The good news is that Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have both played well early in the year while Hunt has proven to be a reliable set of hands coming out of the backfield. In short, the Browns have put a nice supporting cast around Mayfield so they don’t have to rely on him to do too much.

The caveat for Cleveland is that the Browns are still trying to overcome a problematic defense that’s conceding 29.8 points per game. To their credit, the Cleveland defense has forced 12 turnovers in five games and been solid against the run. However, they are giving up huge chunks of yards in the passing game, which has led to come high-scoring games and figures to be a concern against some of the better teams on their schedule. Right now, the Browns are relying on turnovers and a pass rush led by Myles Garrett to save them and hide their defensive flaws.

Full Game Prediction

Despite lingering concerns about their defense, the Cleveland offense could be the key to victory this week. Despite an impressive performance against the Indy defense last week, the Steelers figure to be the best defensive team the Browns have faced this year. After throwing two interceptions last week, Mayfield needs to value ball security because that’s something that hasn’t been an issue for his counterpart this season.

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Brian Hunt
Prediction Written by
Brian Hunt

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