LIVE
CLE
Browns
27
FINAL
JAX
Jaguars
25
CLE -7.5 O/U 48.5
MIA
Dolphins
20
FINAL
NYJ
Jets
3
MIA -7.5 O/U 46
ARI
Cardinals
17
FINAL
NE
Patriots
20
ARI -1 O/U 50.5
NYG
Giants
19
FINAL
CIN
Bengals
17
NYG -6.5 O/U 45
OAK
Raiders
6
FINAL
ATL
Falcons
43
OAK -3.5 O/U 53
TEN
Titans
45
FINAL
IND
Colts
26
IND -3 O/U 51.5
LAC
Chargers
17
FINAL
BUF
Bills
27
BUF -4.5 O/U 51
CAR
Panthers
27
FINAL
MIN
Vikings
28
MIN -3 O/U 50
SF
49ers
23
FINAL
LAR
Rams
20
LAR -5 O/U 44.5
NO
Saints
31
FINAL
DEN
Broncos
3
NO -17 O/U 36.5
KC
Chiefs
27
FINAL
TB
Buccaneers
24
KC -3.5 O/U 56
CHI
Bears
3
2nd Q
GB
Packers
13
GB -8 O/U 44.5
SEA
Seahawks
Tomorrow, 1:15 AM
PHI
Eagles
SEA -6.5 O/U 48.5
BAL
Ravens
Wed 12/2, 12:10 AM
PIT
Steelers
PIT -10 O/U 41
Atlanta FalconsFalcons
3-7-0
Sun 11/22, 6:00 PM - Superdome
ATL +3.5, O/U 49.5
New Orleans SaintsSaints
8-2-0
Sun 11/22, 6:00 PM - Superdome
ATL +3.5, O/U 49.5
Falcons
3-7-0
Saints
8-2-0
Spread
Moneyline
Total
1H Spread
1H Moneyline
1H Total
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Falcons
Saints
Proj Full Score
Proj Win %
Proj First Half Score
Proj First Half Win %
Home Field Advantage
B-Team GradeC+
B+Offense GradeB
DDefense GradeB
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See if pro bettors like Atlanta Falcons or New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons
% of Money --
% of Tickets --
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
% of Money --
% of Tickets --
LinesLines

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Team
Falcons
Saints
+3.5 (-110)
o49.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-111)
o51.5 (-106)
+3.5 (-110)
o49.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
o49.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
o49.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-120)
o49.5 (-110)

Atlanta Falcons vsNew Orleans Saints Prediction

Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 47% of simulations, and the New Orleans Saints 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 34% of simulations and they go on to win 76% when they take care of the ball. The New Orleans Saints wins 69% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 325 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (34% chance) then he helps his team win 50%. Alvin Kamara is averaging 67 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (40% chance) then he helps his team win 73%.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

The New Orleans Saints begin what they hope will be a temporary period without Drew Brees when they host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11. Kickoff is at 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 22, at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. Early betting action as the Saints favored by 4.5 points at home with an over/under of 51.5 points. Let’s take a closer look at both teams as we try to figure out the right Saints vs Falcons prediction.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

Much like the past two years, the Falcons are turning things around after a disastrous start. Prior to last week’s bye, Atlanta had won three of its last four games to get to 3-6 on the season. The season isn’t over yet for interim coach Raheem Morris if the Falcons can keep building off their recent success. However, Atlanta’s remaining schedule is brutal. The Falcons will play the Saints twice, the Buccaneers twice, the Raiders, and the Chiefs during their final seven games, meaning it’s time for the Falcons to prove that they can beat good teams.

Offensively, the Falcons have been great all season. Todd Gurley has helped to upgrade the rushing attack, putting Matt Ryan in a position to put up big numbers. The only question is the status of wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who hasn’t played since Week 8 due to an ankle injury. If he’s able to return this week and play alongside Julio Jones, the Atlanta offense will be at full strength and a force to be reckoned with.

Of course, the Atlanta defense has been a problem all season, and there are still few signs of that changing. The Falcons are giving up 22.6 points per game over their last five games, which is actually a step in the right direction compared to earlier in the season. But there are still serious concerns on that side of the ball, which is why there is so much pressure on Ryan and the Atlanta offense every week.

New Orleans Saints Preview

Despite losing Brees to broken ribs and a collapsed lung last week, the Saints had no problem finishing off a two-touchdown win over the 49ers to win their fifth straight game. That victory keeps them half a game ahead of the Buccaneers for the top spot in the NFC South. New Orleans also owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tampa Bay, putting the Saints in good shape. New Orleans also has the luxury of playing four straight games against losing teams, which should help them cope with losing Brees.

Backup Jameis Winston is poised to lead the New Orleans while Brees is out. Winston completed six of his 10 passes for 63 yards but also took two sacks after entering last week’s game against San Francisco. We also know how turnover-prone Winston can be, which makes it likely that the Saints will rotate Taysom Hill in at quarterback regularly. How the playing time will be divided remains to be seen. But it’s also a safe bet that the Saints will try to lean on their running game a little more, especially with Alvin Kamara averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans defense will have to step up with Brees injured. On the season, the Saints have been rather average defensively, giving up 23.7 points per game. However, things have been better in recent weeks against the high-powered Buccaneers and the lackluster 49ers. Despite a couple of players battling injuries, the Saints should have the personnel to put together a solid defense moving forward.

Full Game Prediction

Obviously, the play of Winston and Hill will be the biggest question mark in this game. However, against the Atlanta defense, the Saints should feel good about their chances of scoring points regardless of who’s playing quarterback. However, there will still be pressure on the New Orleans defense to have a good game. If the Atlanta offense gets rolling, the Falcons can keep up in a shootout with anybody, especially if Ridley makes it back.

Make sure you sign up for a BetQL subscription so you can get the latest betting trends and analytics for this matchup. You will also be able to see our model’s Falcons vs Saints prediction against the spread.

Bryan Zarpentine
Prediction Written by
Bryan Zarpentine

Bryan Zarpentine is a freelance writer and editor who specializes in sports and sports betting. Over the years, he has covered the NFL, MLB, college football, college basketball, and international and club soccer. Bryan is a graduate of Syracuse University and a lifelong fan of the Orange, as well as the New York Mets, Denver Broncos, and Tottenham Hotspur. When he’s not watching sports, there’s nothing he loves more than writing about sports, especially taking on unpopular opinions.

Team Summary
Atlanta Falcons Summary
ATL
Head Coach
Raheem Morris
Avg. Pts. Scored
25.2
1H Pts. Scored
14.6
Def. Pts. Allowed
27.5
New Orleans Saints Summary
NO
Head Coach
Sean Payton
Avg. Pts. Scored
29.5
1H Pts. Scored
17.8
Def. Pts. Allowed
22.2
Schedule Summary
ATL
Teams
NO
No. Of Games
Record
ATS Record
Cover%
O/U Record
Over%
Schedule & Result
Reset Filters Lock in Filters
Reset Filters Lock in Filters
Reset Filters Lock in Filters
Total Games: 16Record: 9-2 ATS Record: 6-5O/U Record: 7-4
Games: 16Record: 9-2 ATS: 6-5O/U: 7-4
DateOpponentScoreATSO/USun 9/13vs. TBW 34-23
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Tue 9/22@ OAKL 24-34
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Mon 9/28vs. GBL 30-37
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Sun 10/4@ DETW 35-29
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Tue 10/13vs. LACW 30-27
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Sun 10/25vs. CARW 27-24
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Sun 11/1@ CHIW 26-23
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Mon 11/9@ TBW 38-3
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Sun 11/15vs. SFW 27-13
Premium Access
Sun 11/22vs. ATLW 24-9
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Sun 11/29@ DENW 31-3
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Sun 12/6@ ATL--
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Sun 12/13@ PHI--
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Sun 12/20vs. KC--
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Fri 12/25vs. MIN--
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Sun 1/3@ CAR--
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Line Movement
ATL
NO
Spread
Moneyline
Total
1st Half Spread
1st Half Moneyline
1st Half Total
2nd Half Spread
2nd Half Moneyline

-2.5

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Falcons Lineup
QB
Player Image
Matt Ryan
Latest News
RB
Player Image
Todd Gurley II
IR
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Calvin Ridley
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Olamide Zaccheaus
QST
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Russell Gage
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Julio Jones
IR
Latest News
TE
Player Image
Hayden Hurst
Latest News
 
Saints Lineup
QB
Player Image
Jameis Winston
QB
Player Image
Taysom Hill
Latest News
QB
Player Image
Drew Brees
IR
Latest News
RB
Player Image
Alvin Kamara
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Tre'Quan Smith
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Emmanuel Sanders
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Michael Thomas
Latest News
TE
Player Image
Jared Cook
Latest News
ATL Lineup
NO Lineup
 
Falcons Lineup
QB
Player Image
Matt Ryan
Latest News
RB
Player Image
Todd Gurley II
IR
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Calvin Ridley
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Olamide Zaccheaus
QST
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Russell Gage
Latest News
WR
Player Image
Julio Jones
IR
Latest News
TE
Player Image
Hayden Hurst
Latest News
 
Falcons Injuries
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Saints Injuries
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ATL Injuries
NO Injuries
 
Falcons Injuries
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