Pittsburgh Steelers vsJacksonville Jaguars Prediction
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a solid favorite with a 73% chance to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. James Conner is projected for 68 rushing yards and a 50% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 26% of simulations where Jacksonville Jaguars wins, Jake Luton averages 0.99 TD passes vs 1.04 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.8 TDs to 1.89 interceptions. James Robinson averages 128 rushing yards and 1.39 rushing TDs when Jacksonville Jaguars wins and 82 yards and 0.69 TDs in losses. The Pittsburgh Steelers has a 61% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 88% of the time.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
A pair of former division foes renew their rivalry in Week 11 as the Jacksonville Jaguars host the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers. Game time is at 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 22, at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Steelers are currently favored by 10 points with an over/under of 47.5 points. Keep reading to take a closer look at both teams to help out with your Jaguars vs Steelers prediction against the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
A long season for the Jaguars continues, although not for a lack of trying. Jacksonville gave Green Bay its best shot last week with the Jags losing their last two games by just six total points. Since their Week 1 stunner against the Colts, it’s been eight straight losses for the Jaguars. To make matters worse, Jacksonville has just one game left against a team with a losing record, making a 1-15 season a realistic possibility.
With Gardner Minshew still nursing a thumb injury, it looks like Jake Luton will make his third career start against the Steelers. Luton has been solid for a sixth-round pick, although it’s also clear why he was only a sixth-round pick. The real excitement on the Jacksonville offense is coming from running back James Robinson. He was the only running back to get a carry against the Packers last week, gaining 109 yards on 23 carries. Robinson is now averaging 109 yards per game in his last three games. If nothing else, the Jags have a productive running game to lead their offense.
Unfortunately, the Jacksonville defense remains a train wreck. The Jags are giving up over 30 points per game on the season. On paper, the 24 points conceded against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week isn’t too bad. But they also gave up nearly 400 yards of offense and allowed someone other than Davante Adams to beat them, which is a troubling sign.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Few people would have predicted the Steelers would start the year 9-0, but the team in black and yellow keeps rolling. One week after escaping a road game with the Cowboys, Pittsburgh made it look easy during a 36-10 win over the Bengals. Thanks to a Baltimore loss, the Steelers now hold a three-game lead atop the AFC North. They could just about lock up the division with a win over the Ravens next Thursday. Of course, they will want to resist the urge to look past the Jaguars.
The puzzling thing about Pittsburgh’s undefeated record is the lack of balance the Steelers have offensively. The running game has been subpar for most of the season, especially with James Conner being held 50 yards rushing in three straight games. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is averaging less than seven yards per pass attempt, so it’s not as if the Steelers are airing it out with great success. However, Roethlisberger has been efficient, throwing 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions while only taking 10 sacks in nine games. Plus, the likes of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson are slowly coming alive to give Roethlisberger some options outside of JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Of course, the Pittsburgh defense is the biggest reason for the team’s undefeated record. That was on full display last week in a dominating performance against the Bengals. The Steelers have now held six of their nine opponents to 21 points or less, which is usually a winning formula in the NFL, especially when you’re averaging four sacks per game.
Full Game Prediction
On paper, this looks like a considerable mismatch, which is why the Steelers are favored by 10 points. But the Jaguars have plenty of fight in them and aren’t going to go down easily. Jacksonville’s running game is also one area where the Jags might be able to take advantage of a soft spot in the Pittsburgh defense. Unless they can create some big plays in the passing game, a lopsided win is not a certainty for the Steelers
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